We've seen the euro continue zig-zagging downward from that .618 Fibonacci retracement, as the financial situation in Europe appears increasingly questionable. At first the stock market fell, then started rebounding, but now wobbled again. We kick off our weekend as usual with the engaging insights of Raymond Merriman's previews sharing a glimpse of his forecasting analysis, including market cycles, economy, and even the political climate. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning November 29, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
Equity prices were mostly lower throughout the world last week in the wake of North Korea’s attack on a populated island in South Korea, plus the growing concerns of new debt crises in the Euro union countries, following new bailout plans for Ireland.
But they weren’t all down. Some were down to their lowest levels since September and early October, like the AEX in Netherlands and FTSE in England. But the German DAX and Swiss SMI held up fairly well. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Nikkei of Japan and Micex of Moscow were actually up. But the Hang Seng of Hong Kong, NIFTY index of India, and the All Ordinaries of Australia, were all down to their lowest levels in several weeks. The same was true with the Bovespa in Brazil, whereas the NASDAQ Composite and the Merval index of Argentina were up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down sharp, then up sharp, then down sharp at the end of the shortened holiday trading week.
Crude Oil was down sharply into mid-week, but then rallied strongly at the end of the week, which is typical when Mars is in Sagittarius or Capricorn. That tends to coincide with an increase in international tensions (but usually in the Middle East), which in turn can drive Crude Oil prices up, but then back down when the tensions subside. In other words, Crude Oil is prone to several large price swings during this period, which will last into January 15, 2011 this time around.
The most important story for financial markets, however, was the renewed credit fears in the Euro Union. This caused the Euro currency to fall sharply from a high of 1.3785 on Monday to a low of 1.3200 on Friday. Gold and Silver initially rallied on the news, but then sold off hard too on Friday. It all fits with the approaching geocosmic signatures of the next three weeks.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Mars in Sagittarius is not the only factor coinciding with sharp price movements in financial markets and tensions in world relations. Mars in Sagittarius is also on the verge of translating, by square aspect, the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction in Pisces, November 29-December 3. Two days later, on December 5, Uranus goes stationary direct. This has the potential for even larger price swings in financial markets than witnessed the last couple of weeks. In the study of Financial Astrology, “big ranges” are the order of the day when Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are highlighted at the same time. And that is exactly what we are facing in the next 10 days.
Beyond that, Mars is also translating the entire Cardinal Climax pattern of July and August 2010 as it moves into Capricorn on December 7. The effect of this planetary powerhouse will probably be felt until Mars finally leaves its square aspect to Saturn on December 29. How will it feel? Probably very tense, for if the U.S. Congress doesn’t resolve the expiring tax issue by December 31, taxes on all Americans will rise sharply, in contrast to the election campaign promises of both President Barack Obama in 2008, and the victorious Republicans in the mid-term elections of early November. It won’t be pretty if they don’t come to an agreement. And the chances of an agreement, according to these signatures, is not very great. Failure to live up their promises will not only put the approval rating for Congress and the president into even lower territory (if that is possible), but it would also send the U.S. stock market reeling. That’s a lot of money that would no longer be available for investments that would be transferred instead into the hands of the government, who already has reputation for extremely poor financial management of the people’s monies in the past decade.
Longer-Term Thoughts
“The history of the rise and later fall of the leading countries in the Great Power system since the advanced of western Europe in the sixteenth century – that is, of nations such as Spain, the Netherlands, France, the British Empire, and currently the United States – shows a very significant correlation between productive and revenue-raising capacities on the one hand and military strength on the other… Great Powers in relative decline instinctively respond by spending more on “security” and thereby divert potential resources from “investment” and compound their long-term dilemma.”
-Paul Kennedy, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” Random House, New York, NY, 1987.
What if the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Board were each focused on the wrong points in trying to stimulate a sustainable economic recovery? What if the more important areas in stimulating the future of the U.S. economy were not lower interest rates or more government spending, but rather support – and not the orchestrated devaluing - of the U.S. Dollar?
I keep looking back at the Fed’s decision to enact the second round of quantitative easing on August 10, 2010, right in the heart of the Cardinal Climax. From the viewpoint of a Financial Astrologer, it is not always an “event” that coincides with such powerful aspects. In many cases, it is the decisions, or policies, enacted then that lead to “unintended consequences” later on.
The “unintended consequences” by the Fed to buy long-term U.S. Treasuries, are that the U.S. Dollar falls ever lower to a point of a downside breakout, and eventually a “run” on the Dollar. If that happens, it can quickly escalate in a global outrage, and a demand to end the Dollar’s resign as the international currency reserve.
Could this happen? Well, ever since the Fed started to execute this policy the day after the mid-term U.S.A. elections, long-term treasuries have been falling in value as interest rates have actually gone up. This is opposite the Fed’s intent with QE2. If long-term rates go up, then the value of those Treasuries go down, which means the “investment” of the people’s monies has also gone down with this parlay into “risk-oriented” financials. Again, this was not the intent, which means the Fed, with the government’s blessings, initiated a gamble that could backfire. This would be consistent with Jupiter and Uranus in conjunction in Aries at the time, which indicates a speculative (gambling) act that may be made with poor judgment or exaggerated hope. Both were square to Pluto in Capricorn, which could end up increasing – and not decreasing - the size of the U.S. debt. And in opposition to Saturn, it could result in a loss. At the same time, all of these transits made a grand square to the USA Venus, which rules the nation’s currency value, which continues to plummet as both government and the Federal Reserve Board try to garner an edge in world trade competition by enacting policies that weaken the greenback and make U.S. produced goods cheaper in other currencies.
The Fed’s idea at the time was that doing “something is better than doing nothing.” Every time I hear that as an argument for action under a hard aspect involving Jupiter, I just know that an unwise decision is likely being made, one for which it is almost certainly going to yield “unintended consequences.” Like, what will happen if the U.S. Dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency? Sometimes it is actually better to do nothing than something. And I think those decisions made during the height of the Cardinal Climax are such an example.
I guess we will find out when the 126-year Uranus-Pluto waxing square unfolds in 2012-2015. In the meantime, with the Euro currency also falling, it is probably time to seriously consider investment in the Far East, which seems to be rising as the western currencies and culture are reeling.
Announcements
The English edition of the Forecast 2011 Book is on schedule to come out December 15. It can be pre-ordered at www.mmacycles.com. We are pleased to announce that it will also be translated into several languages this year, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages:
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.urania.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
For a detailed review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/scorecard-for-forecasts-2010/. It’s even better then we thought when first reviewed in August. Also interesting is that the huge run up to new yearly highs in world stock indices for the second of this year was covered in the 2010 book. It is all part of the huge “Asset Inflation” described therein.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
January 9, 2011: The annual worldwide webcast on “Forecast 2011.” Details to be announced soon. Cost will be $45.00.
January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to www.astrodata.ch.
February 6, 2011: Lansing, MI. “Forecasts for 2011” with Raymond Merriman, sponsored by the Learning Center. Contact 517-664-2665 for information.
April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. For more information, please go to http://www.astrologykansascity.com/, or contact allenblasco@yahoo.com. This will probably be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.
May 2011: Ljubljana, Slovenia and Belgrade, Serbia. Details to be announced soon.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html. I am going to have to start talking about this soon because it will be a big event for me I haven’t had a multi-day conference on my work for several years now. This will be a joy and a challenge to put together what I have learned since 2006, both as a market timing analyst and a trader. I hope several of you can join us. I believe it will be well worth it, if you wish to learn these methods of analysis, and talk to others who also seriously study these subjects. You should sign up early to get an advanced registration discount. I have never been to Bali, but I hear it is lovely. I may stay there a few additional weeks and write.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
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