The last time we focused on natural gas, it was in the process of getting support at my trendlines. Now it's making a test upward of the upper channel I've marked on my weekly $NatGas chart (at bottom below). This time, it's pushing up with the indicators looking more positive. That's even true for UNG (the natural gas ETF) which has gotten priced much closer to the commodity, interestingly (even if temporarily). It's possible that UNG is just starting a wave 3 of 3 up (or another type of good third-wave movement). So the KI$$ approach is to buy and stay long for a good while. The protective stop can be nearby if you prefer, although the classic stop-loss level us just under the prior swing low. If UNG and natural gas ($NatGas) continue upward from here, above the channel line and moving-average resistance, it'll be a good confirmation.
There's plenty of price overhang resistance too, so I'm viewing this as a longer-term swing position and won't mind some turbulence as long as I'm not stopped out. Hopefully the recent swings (which may be a 1,2,(1),(2) type movement) have done enough consolidation work to shake out weak hands and build a bullish base. Sure, I'd still prefer to see more volumes on the buying, up days ... that's the main reason I'm still slightly cautious. But it's looking more positive finally, so I'm in at this point!
PS - I checked Tony Caldaro's public charts on page 10, at http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987 (see links at right too). He's got it marked as having finished "b" wave down. So he's expecting a good wave "c" upward. That's very helpful to us in holding for a good swing long, too!
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