There appear some struggles between bullish and bearish aspects of the stock market right now. It's overbought technically, and yet its bullish potential is becoming more apparent. We'll look forward to sizing it up in terms of the technicals this weekend. First, we start as usual with the commentary and perspectives of Raymond Merriman. His weekly previews indicate his financial forecasting analysis, including market cycles, economy, and even the political climate. He also uses cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning December 13, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
The Forecast 2011 Book is now out!!! And next week, we anticipate that it will be available for the IPhone 4 and IPad through Itunes. Look up Forecast 2011 on the IBookstore and look forward to a link coming soon on our web site.
Review and Preview
If you looked at stock markets around the world last week, you would think that Mercury is retrograde. In fact, Uranus ended its retrograde motion last week, and Mercury began its three-week retrograde motion on Friday, December 10. Only a Financial Astrologer would be able to appreciate the conflicts exhibited between world equity markets last week.
In Europe, the German DAX traded above 7000 for the first time since June 2008. Russia’s MICEX index also soared to a new 2-year high. The AEX of Netherlands, FTSE of England, and SMI of Zurich also posted decent rallies last week, but did not exceed their highs of even the month before. Thus we have a case of intermarket bearish divergence starting up in the Euro equity markets, during a geocosmic critical reversal week.
But the picture was completely different in many Asian nations. In Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and India (NIFTY), the stock markets fell all week, nearing their lowest levels in two months. Yet the Japanese Nikkei was up all week, soaring to its highest level since May 2010. The All Ordinaries of Australia also rallied, but did not take out its high of November.
The Americas were similar to each of these other continents. In Argentina, the Merval Index soared to a new all-time last week. If you want to see what a bubble looks like, just glance at the daily chart of the Merval. The NASDAQ Composite also rallied sharply, to its highest level since June 2008. But the DJIA failed to take out its high of November, and in the case of Brazil’s Bovespa, prices fell sharply, testing its 3-month lows as inflation and rising interest rates start to put a choke hold on its economy, similar to what is appearing in China and India. The brakes are being applied to the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), except Russia. It may be coming to an area near you soon, too.
So how does one rectify such diverse behavior in equities? Easy, if you study Financial Astrology. When Uranus is strong (and it is), there are no followers, only leaders. Everyone goes in a different direction to a different drummer. Some markets break resistance, others break support, and still others reverse. As far as reversals, you saw that in the precious metals last week too. Gold made a new all-time high on December 7 above 1430, and Silver soared to a new 30-year high, up to 3075. But then, right in the middle of all these major geocosmic signatures and as Mars changed signs from Sagittarius to Capricorn, precious metals and Crude Oil reversed and fell sharply. All in all, it was a supportive week for Financial Astrologers, but it probably wasn’t a good week for those who like their markets steady and consistent. That’s the way of Uranus.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Here comes Mercury. Oops! There he goes back again! That’s right. The trickster is returning to prominence these next three weeks as he starts his retrograde motion, December 10-30. This is typically a time when decisions are made and votes are taken, without a clear understanding of what one is deciding or voting upon. As a general rule, these decisions will have to modified later on when it is revealed exactly what was involved. And in expected fashion, the U.S. Congress has again waited until Mercury retrograde to try to come to an agreement on an important bill – the tax bill. Should we be surprised that no one likes everything that is being proposed in this bill? Should we be surprised that large numbers in Congress are threatening to defy the president (again, but this time it is his side that defies)? This is not an easy period for President Obama. But then again, his birthday was right in the middle of last summer’s Cardinal Climax (August 4). In the study of astrology, that means his 2010 solar return consisted of that huge T-square between Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto. It promised a year of change for Mr. Obama, who ran on that very campaign theme. And the cosmos of course has delivered that in spades to him during the mid-term elections in early November. I don’t think that is what he had in mind when he promised “change you can believe in.” As he attempts to pivot towards the center on the tax issue, he now draws ire from his liberal base who alleges he gave up the class warfare fight of Saturn in Virgo-Libra too soon. Now he has another fight on his hands.
But let’s get back to the markets for this coming week. Mars will conjunct Pluto in Capricorn on Monday. Mars and Pluto represent power struggles over control, and of course that can apply to any facet of life, and not just in a military situation. It applies to government too, as Mr. Obama is finding out from his own constituents. Later in the week (December 16-18), the Sun in Sagittarius will translate in a square aspect the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction in Pisces. Usually this would coincide with a sharp move in prices of financial markets. It could also coincide with earthquakes and terrorist activities. Watch the action in Crude Oil prices, for both Sagittarius and Pisces have pertinence to Crude Oil.
With Mercury retrograde, and the Sun square to both Jupiter and Uranus in mutable signs, this is apt to be a crazy week. It favors very short-term traders, and probably punishes position traders who try to manage their risk with stop-loss orders. In fact, on some levels, this week and early the next is apt to be strange, remarkable, and highly bizarre. Try to avoid disputes, because if you are sane, you simply won’t be able to deal with the irrational behavior you are likely to encounter in others. Just watch Congress. They will have that “glazed look of a madman” in their eyes. Stay away. If you want peace, you will have to go inside. Meditate. It’s not “out there.”
Longer-Term Thoughts
Financial Astrologers need not be disappointed in the lack of a “big event” during the height of the Cardinal Climax last August. As stated in this column several times, powerful geocosmic patterns can just as often coincide with major decisions or policies for which the consequences will be “big” later on. And now we are finding out that is exactly the case regarding the decision of the Federal Reserve Board on August 10, 2010, to embark upon its second round of quantitative easing, or QE2. The “unintended consequences” of that decision are starting to show up now as long-term bond yields are actually rising, instead of falling. The so-called “bubble” in long-term U.S. Treasuries may be bursting, despite the Feds large scale purchases which have now started. Now what? The value of these investments of U.S. taxpayers’ monies is going down, not up. Furthermore, the idea that this would help mortgage rates stay low is not happening. Mortgage rates instead are rising to their highest levels in months. Here is how The Wall Street Journal reported it on Friday’s front page article, titled, Markets Defy Fed’s Bond-Buying Push:
“The Federal Reserve’s decision to spur the economy with a $600 billion round of bond buying was among the most controversial in its history…critics of the plan doubted it would work and warned it could fuel a speculative bubble in addition to inflation. But the early results suggest another outcome: The program might produce neither the burst in growth that officials so desperately want nor the inflation their critics so vociferously fear.”
As we look back on 2010, I think economic historians will indeed focus on that period – early August 2010, the astrological peak of the Cardinal Climax – as the major decision-making point that affected the national and even world economies and currency markets in late 2010 through a good part of 2011 and even beyond. I think, in time, it will also be seen as stimulating further asset inflation, especially in stocks, especially after March 2011.
But the key point for Financial Astrologers to recognize is that perhaps one of the most important decisions ever made in the history of banking – and certainly the Federal Reserve Board – probably happened right at the height of the Cardinal Climax. As Jupiter and Uranus made a T-square from early Aries to the Sun-Pluto opposition in the Fed chart, the concern was that the Fed would overestimate in their judgments made at the time. There would be “unintended consequences” of their decision to “do something, rather than nothing.” They expected their decisions would lower long-term rates and support a rebound in the housing market. Instead, it appears that the housing market is about to stall once again due to rising rates – and not the lower rates they projected.
As far as financial markets were concerned, that period of the QE2 decision soon ended the 4-month slump in equity markets around the world, and the start of a new bull market leg up. With both Jupiter and Uranus returning to Aries in late March 2011, and following the third and final opposition of Jupiter and Saturn in the last week of March 2011, we expect to see another explosive up period for stocks to follow into late May or June, 2011. The problem, though, is that this good news for the stock market does not equate to an equal amount of good news for the economy or housing market. We continue to drift through this portal known as the Cardinal Climax, until at least 2015, and probably for most of this new decade. When we come out the other side of this portal, things will be different. But we already know that, because we are experiencing that “change” since 2008. Remember? We voted for “Change” in 2008. And we did so again in 2010, and we will do so once again in 2012.
Announcements
It’s out!!! The Forecast 2011 Book is out, as of Friday afternoon. Delivery will take place all weekend and into Monday, so if you ordered it, you should receive it very shortly now. The Chinese, Swiss, Japanese, and Russian versions are also on schedule to be released by December 15. The Dutch and Spanish versions are expected to be out any day now too. The Chinese version will be published in both languages (English on one side and Chinese on the others), for those who wish both translations. We are pleased to announce that it will be available in several languages, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages. Please contact them to order your copy in these languages:
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
Any day now we hope to announce the launch of the electronic book version of Forecast 2011 Book. The final approval is pending. It will be available on Iphone, IPad, and Amazon.com. Please check our website daily at www.mmacycles.com, where we will announce the particulars on how you can order your I-book version of Forecast 2011 just as soon as it is launched!
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only. These reports are included in the Japanese, German, and Dutch translated MMA Cycles Report respectively.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
January 9, 2011: The “Forecasts for 2011 Webcast” with Raymond Merriman is on! It will take place on Sunday, January 9, 2011, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM, GMT, or 10:00 AM in Los Angeles). Via the modern technology of our webinar host, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2011, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. You will be able to ask questions directly to Merriman. The cost for this special event is $45.00. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before January 5), for space will be limited. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, just register at (www.mmacycles.com), or http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2011,-live-webcast-on-january-9,-2011/, or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034.
January 14-15, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman. The Friday evening symposium begins at 7:00 PM, and features Claude Weiss, Alexandra Klinghammer, Dr. Christoph Schubert-Weller, Verena Bachmann, Monica Kissling, and Raymond Merriman. The cost is 80 CHF prior to December 17, afterwards 95 CHF. Merriman’s talk will be in English (with German translation), the others in German. The Saturday workshop on “Financial Market Timing and Financial Astrology” will take place from 10:00 AM-5:00 PM at the Hotel Senator. The cost is 290 CHF prior to December 17, and 330 CHF afterwards (includes lunch). The workshop will be in English. For more details, go to www.mma-europe.ch, or http://www.mma-europe.ch/stage3.asp?pg1=33&pg2=35&pg3=155. Or you may email to christian.wuethrich@astrodata.com, the conference registrar. For English description and schedule, go to http://www.mma-europe.ch/MMA_Event_Jan2011.pdf.
February 6, 2011: Lansing, MI. “Forecasts for 2011” with Raymond Merriman, sponsored by the LCAS. 1-4:00 PM, Hampton Inn in Okemos (near I-96, exit 110). Contact 517-664-2665 for information. Or www.LCASastrology.com.
April 14 and 16, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. For more information, please go to http://www.astrologykansascity.com/, or contact allenblasco@yahoo.com. This will probably be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States. Please note these are new dates.
May 6-8, and May 14, 2011: Ljubljana, Slovenia and Belgrade, Serbia. Contact bern@astrology.si for details on Slovenia conference and aleksandar@keplerunited.org for Belgrade conference.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html. I am going to have to start talking about this soon because it will be a big event for me. I haven’t had a multi-day conference on my work for several years now. This will be a joy and a challenge to put together what I have learned since 2006, both as a market timing analyst and a trader. I hope several of you can join us. I believe it will be well worth it, if you wish to learn these methods of analysis, and talk to others who also seriously study these subjects. Sign up early to get an advanced registration discount. I have never been to Bali, but I hear it is lovely. I may stay there a few additional weeks and write.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
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Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
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Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
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