Saturday, December 18, 2010

Traders that make out with break-outs should brace for fake-outs this week: Raymond Merriman's preview comments

Last weekend Raymond Merriman said that only fast traders would appreciate the week of Dec. 13. Just in case you didn't notice - he was right! The swings were too fast for anyone other than daytraders and very fast swings. And it makes the market look like it's consolidating or churning, so we'll look forward to sizing it up in terms of the technicals this weekend to gauge its strength (or lack thereof). First, we start as usual with the commentary and perspectives of Raymond Merriman. His weekly previews indicate his financial forecasting analysis, including market cycles, economy, and even the political climate. He also uses cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning December 20, 2010

Written by Raymond Merriman


Note: Due to the holiday seasons, the columns of the next two weeks will be very brief.

Review and Preview

 With Mercury retrograde and the High Holiday season approaching, not even triple witching options expiration on Friday, or the Sun in a hard aspect to both Jupiter and Uranus , could jolt the equity markets into any kind of meaningful activity. The range for the week in most markets was surprisingly small. This is unusual because transits involving Jupiter and Uranus more often produce big range days, especially when the Sun is in the expansive sign of Sagittarius.

 Several of the world stock indices did make new multi-month or multi-year highs in the past week, such as the German DAX, FTSE, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. But they did not follow through to the upside. Others fell slightly to new multi-month lows, like the Hang Seng of Hong Kong and Bovespa of Brazil. But they didn’t fall sharply. In other words, these “breakouts” to new highs or lows were not very impressive, which brings out one of the important characteristics of Mercury retrograde. That is, markets oftentimes do take out important support or resistance. But instead of being legitimate “breakouts,” these market moves fizzle and often turn into “fake outs.” This may be the case again, especially as we now enter the center of the retrograde time band.

 Gold and Silver attempted to resume their bull markets early in the week, but they too fizzled out after Tuesday, December 14. Neither made a new yearly high. The picture was the same in foreign currencies against the U.S. Dollar, as well as Crude Oil. No new highs and no new lows. All in all, it was a week in which a lot of mundane and political discussion took place, but little to show for it in the market place.

Short-Term Geocosmics

 The markets may appear to be hibernating, but the geocosmic activity is far from being quiet. More than likely, the relationship of geocosmic activity to human activity may be a reflection of contradictory forces in the heavens, and messages on earth.

 Monday, December 20, finds Mercury at the midpoint in its retrograde time band of December 10-30. This is a point where reversals tend to happen in financial markets that did not reverse near the start of the retrograde. Are there any markets that have just continued to rise or fall in the past week? Well, yes. One could say the stock markets of the Untied States, Germany, and England have slowly continued to gain. According to this Mercury retrograde midpoint, they might be primed for a decline now. On the other hand, the stock markets of Hong Kong and Brazil have continued to fall. They might be poised to rally. Yes, I know, it sounds crazy, because they are all related. Mercury retrograde doesn’t care. A more interesting market to watch now might be the Treasuries (T-Notes and T-Bonds), which have fallen sharply since early November. They might be poised for sudden rally now. On Friday, December 17, one trading before the midpoint, that rally may have started.

 After this week, our attention will focus on the third and final conjunction between Jupiter and Uranus, which takes place on January 4. With the Sun translating both Jupiter and Uranus in a square aspect, December 16-18, we may be getting a glimpse of what to expect right now. That is, if there is to be a mid-Mercury retrograde reversal this week, it may be brief, and prices might be right back again in the first day or two of trading next year. And then a more sustained reversal might commence.

Longer-Term Thoughts

 A few weeks ago I was a special guest speaker for the traders of ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). I spoke on the future of the U.S. Dollar, which is one of their primary markets. When I introduced the subject of Financial Astrology as a correlate of cycles in the U.S. Dollar market, the questions came in earnest. I was quite amazed at their interest. They were quite amazed with my responses to their questions. It was a great interaction, but I thought I would share with you one of the areas that came up, which has nothing to do with finances. It had to do with the Star of Bethlehem. Yes, I was surprised too! Here I am, talking about cycles and the U.S. Dollar index, and they wanted to know about Gold, Frankincense, Myrrh, and the birth of Jesus. And so, since it is the Christmas season, let me share with you the Christmas story I discussed with them.

 According to the Bible, the wise men (astrologers) saw a bright star in the sky, probably in the west. They believed from their studies (astrology) that it meant a king was to be born. The star disappeared for several months and then it reappeared in the east, brighter than ever, and they followed it to Bethlehem. Joseph and Mary were there too, for they had to pay their taxes demanded by King Herod. We have the same problem today, but that’s another story.

 The bright star in the skies was most likely the 20-year conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn, in Pisces, the sign of the fish. Jupiter and Saturn are the furthest out planets that are visible to the human eye, and until the discovery of Uranus in the late 18th century, were the most important of the planetary pair cycles to mundane astrologers. Pisces is the sign associated with spiritual matters, and even saviors or martyrs. Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions have long ago been considered the dynamics of sound and measured judgment, or wisdom. But it is believed by some that when their conjunction occurs in the sign of Pisces, it pertains to spiritual wisdom and the birth of spiritual and judicial leaders. 

 The conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in Pisces took place three times in 6 B.C. (May 27, September 29, and December 3), according to the Tables of Planetary Phenomena, written by Neil F. Michelsen in 1990, and published by ACS Publications of San Diego, CA. This is quite possible because Herod, the Roman King at the time who demanded his citizens pay their taxes in Bethlehem, died in 4 B.C. Jesus of Nazareth could not have been born after 4 B.C.

 But if Jupiter and Saturn in Pisces comprised the “bright star” that the wise men followed, at what time of the year would “the birth” have taken place? You can forget about the idea that the birth occurred on December 25 (even though that is MY birthday), or the belief of many astrologers that Jesus was born under the sign of Pisces. There was no “bright star” in the skies then for the wise men to follow for a long trip to Bethlehem. A “bright star” of a planet is “brightest” when it in opposition to the Sun. That is, in the darkest part of the day (midnight), any star (or planet) in opposition to the Sun will be at its brightest. When the Sun is close to the same sign as the planet or star, you won’t see it for long, if at all, because it will rise and set with the Sun. So if Jupiter and Saturn were in middle to late Pisces in 6 BC, it would have shown in the night skies as a bright star when the Sun was within one sign of Virgo, the sign opposite Pisces. That implies the birth would most likely have taken place in August, September or October (Leo, Virgo, or Libra). It just so happens that Libra (along with Pisces) is known as the sign of Peace, which would be fitting for a historical character known as the “Prince of Peace.”

 Now lest you think that Jupiter and Saturn oftentimes conjunct in Pisces, think again. Jupiter and Saturn conjunct in the same element for about 200 years at a time. That means they only conjunct in water signs (like Pisces) every fourth 200-year period. Once they leave the water element, they don’t return again for approximately 600-800 years. Following the 6 B.C. instance, Jupiter and Saturn did not conjunct in Pisces again until three separate passes in 729-848, followed by four instances between 1464 and 1643. It will be another two centuries before we get our next possible spiritual savior based on these astrological dynamics.

 What does this have to do with Financial Astrology and today’s markets? Not much. But then again, there is not much happening in financial markets as we approach this current holiday season anyway. And so it gives me a chance to tell you the story about the most famous astrologers in history: the three wise men (Melchior, Gasper, and Balthazar), the star they followed (Jupiter and Saturn), and the course of civilization these factors spawned. And besides, the traders of the U.S. Dollar index on the ICE exchange wanted to know. To my most pleasant surprise, they were very open-minded and interested in the oldest study known to mankind: astrology. Truth never dies, and hope is eternal.

 Have a happy and wonderful holiday season.

 
Announcements
It’s out!!! The Forecast 2011 Book is now out. The Chinese, Swiss, Dutch, Japanese, Spanish, and Russian versions are also out or due out this week. We are pleased to announce that that this year’s book is be available in each of these languages, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages. Please contact them to order your copy in these languages:
 
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at  www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com

And now it is out on I Pad and I Phone too! Just go to “Library”, then “Store,” then in the field titled “Search”, type in “Forecast 2011” or “Raymond Merriman” (without quotation marks). And we will also have it available in Spanish via the I Pad and I Phone 4 in about one week. Wow! This is exciting!

January 9, 2011: The “Forecasts for 2011 Webcast” with Raymond Merriman is on! It will take place on Sunday, January 9, 2011, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM, GMT, or 10:00 AM in Los Angeles). Via the modern technology of our webinar host, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2011, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. You will be able to ask questions directly to Merriman. The cost for this special event is $45.00. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before January 5), for space will be limited. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, just register at (www.mmacycles.com),  or http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2011,-live-webcast-on-january-9,-2011/, or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034.

If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report.  I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”

The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – came out last week. If you are a subscriber and did not receive it, please let us know at once. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only. These reports are included in the Japanese, German, and Dutch translated MMA Cycles Report respectively.

January 14-15, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman. The Friday evening symposium begins at 7:00 PM, and features Claude Weiss, Alexandra Klinghammer, Dr. Christoph Schubert-Weller, Verena Bachmann, Monica Kissling, and Raymond Merriman. The cost is 80 CHF prior to December 17, afterwards 95 CHF. Merriman’s talk will be in English (with German translation), the others in German. The  Saturday workshop on “Financial Market Timing and Financial Astrology” will take place from 10:00 AM-5:00 PM at the Hotel Senator. The cost is 290 CHF prior to December 17, and 330 CHF afterwards (includes lunch). The workshop will be in English. For more details, go to www.mma-europe.ch, or http://www.mma-europe.ch/stage3.asp?pg1=33&pg2=35&pg3=155. Or you may email to christian.wuethrich@astrodata.com, the conference registrar. For English description and schedule, go to http://www.mma-europe.ch/MMA_Event_Jan2011.pdf.

February 6, 2011: Lansing, MI. “Forecasts for 2011” with Raymond Merriman, sponsored by the LCAS. 1-4:00 PM, Hampton Inn in Okemos (near I-96, exit 110). Contact 517-664-2665 for information. Or www.LCASastrology.com.    

April 14 and 16, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. For more information, please go to http://www.astrologykansascity.com/, or contact allenblasco@yahoo.com. This will probably be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States. Please note these are new dates.

May 6-8, and May 14, 2011: Ljubljana, Slovenia and Belgrade, Serbia. Contact bern@astrology.si for details on Slovenia conference and aleksandar@keplerunited.org for Belgrade conference.

September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html. I am going to have to start talking about this soon because it will be a big event for me. I haven’t had a multi-day conference on my work for several years now. This will be a joy and a challenge to put together what I have learned since 2006, both as a market timing analyst and a trader. I hope several of you can join us. I believe it will be well worth it, if you wish to learn these methods of analysis, and talk to others who also seriously study these subjects. Sign up early to get an advanced registration discount. I have never been to Bali, but I hear it is lovely. I may stay there a few additional weeks and write.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)

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