Signs of next bull market wave stirring in the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI)

Technical analysis of the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) shows the stirrings of a positive move upward that can put it and financial markets generally in the next big bullish wave up. I checked on this since I was curious whether this indicator of shipping activity - and therefore economic activity - was consistent with our primary approach of being positioned long for the next big move up. Even if you believe it's merely inflation (signified by a dropping dollar), the $BDI is positioned as moving upward from a low that technically appears to have been a cycle trough. Today it actually made a positive move above its 8-day moving average. This is a form of positive divergence compared with stock market performance the past two days. This move up is also from a low that looks like a double bottom on the daily chart, and also a longer-term bigger double-bottom level on the weekly chart. I've posted below my daily chart of it, and also included the weekly chart of $BDI from Tony Caldaro's public charts at his "the Elliott Wave Lives On" site (thanks again Tony!), always in the sites list at right and his sites updates feed also at right, lower on the page. Tony's wave count suggests that the $BDI may already have bottomed its own wave 2 and curling up for the start of its wave 3 higher.

The big surprise would be if fundamental activity really does pick up, the dollar doesn't crash, and markets really make a bullish third-wave move which is fueled by buyers recognizing and participating in the move up. Regardless of what the dollar does, the cycle indicator and StochRSI as well as MACD indicate that a reversal and positive turn have occurred. This traces a higher low which points to the probability of a higher high (so long as the recent low isn't breached). Conversely, the bearish alternative would be that the Baltic Dry Index - and markets generally - fail and make lower lows. That would be easy to spot because these indices would violate support at the recent lows on the charts (in the case of $SPX, at $1294).

But if you're wondering whether something bullish can still send the markets even higher - the $BDI as an indicator of shipping activity is showing that something bullish this way comes.