Saturday, December 27, 2008

Agricultural commodities into 2009; oil; and steel

If you're among those interesting in going long soybeans, corn, etc., but want the diversity and ease of an ETF, then DAG can be a way to play it. DAG is a double-long etf, meaning it's intended to move twice as much as the underlying commodities value - hurts more going down (AGA is the double-short etf), but rewards twice as much on the way up.

Tony Caldaro includes agricultural commodities among his many charts (you can find under the "other sites of interest" to the right). I don't personally have an Elliott Wave count for this market, but I sure enjoy looking at the RSI bullish divergence showing on his long term (weekly bars) chart, below.
I gather that Tony's count implies a rally, rather than not going to new highs ... well, even a rally can be very playable as a long swing trade, with the idea that it lasts for some months into 2009!

May as well take another look at oil today, too. First, a look at the monthly long-term chart:


And, here's a closeup daily-bars chart, from Tony Caldaro's site - RSI has upturned again so we'll see if it "holds" this time and can move into rally mode:




And I don't want to lose track of steel as a potentially longer-term investment, so here's another look at the monthly chart of U.S. Steel (X):

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