One set of views on equities

**I am updating this post with some different ideas, based on some of the new indicators coming out. The original post remains below, along with the chart. However - I am NOW leaning to the idea that "the low" is not done yet in the equities markets, and perhaps not in gold either. This leads to the idea that the SPX goes well under 741, with the DJIA likewise testing perhaps as low as the 6,000 area. I will post a bigger long-term chart that looks at some of the Fibonacci extension levels possible in that area.
-------------



Pulling together several ideas, here's a way of looking at the possibility of a "B" or "X" wave up that could test 1198 SPX by summer of 2009, which could also be a retest of the 160-month MA area which some watch.

On the monthly, the RSI looks in oversold territory but not yet rebounded from that. The MACD looks stretched, and could be getting ready to go into a cross up or at least a test upward.

But has the market ruled out a new low under 741.02 SPX? While I'm in the camp looking for more weakness in a pullback, I lean to the idea that it's only a swing low pullback without making a new low at this point. Of course, I've got some other funny ideas too, about whether the DJIA could pull off new highs (maybe a diagonal 3rd wave over the next 3 years, and its 5th about a year after that) while the SPX traces out a complex "B" or "X" wave. That would have the equity markets making highs where many others are forecasting new lows - and I'm not going to argue that this idea is the right one, just saying I think it remains an alternative. And therefore, another reason to remain careful investing and trading, keeping an objective eye on market movements as we enter strange times - times of unprecedented credit market reactions, deficits, and monetary policy swings.