Balancing short-term and long-term outlooks in SPX, bonds and VIX

As I mentioned in my post last evening, there are reasons to expect moves going into opex tomorrrow, and some of the indicators such as VIX were going to levels that would make some kind of consolidation move likely. Yes, we saw continuation moves this morning (as also indicated by the ChartsEdge map for today), and now reaction moves (also indicated by that map for today, although with a higher high than it indicated for the afternoon).

What traders do with all this depends, in my honest opinion, on one's time frame. If you're position investing or swing trading across days or weeks, I don't see a basis for saying it's up from here. We can help translate what the charts are saying, more this evening and this weekend. For now, notice that TLT has merely been testing back to that 200-hour sma that I mentioned earlier today, as VIX has been pulling back from its push up to its 50 dsma. The SPX (with SPY as the proxy ETF on this chart) might have a gap fill objective, if it can make it that far perhaps tomorrow.

But if you check out the S&P 500 monthly chart I posted at my UBTNB3 site, you'll see that the indicators are telling a story more consistent with the ideas that there's more downside yet (whether to 757 or so in the S&P 500 to test near the November 2008 lows, or whether we see a slide under the 2002-2003 lows to levels such as I indicate on that monthly chart).