Thursday, January 15, 2009

Money still coming out of crude oil

Money is still coming out of crude oil as the oil price continues to weaken. It hasn't dug a new low, at least not yet - some people are talking about oil at $18, or anyway under $20.

One thing I see on this chart, if the idea of a reverse head & shoulders may still be valid, is that it was 9 trading days for the swing down into new lows. Today is the 8th trading day since the most recent swing high from there. This raises the possibility, IF there is a symmetry, for a rally starting on Monday.

Sound familiar? waiting and waiting for a rally ... and beginning to feel like it may never arrive? well - sorry - all I can do is point out what the charts are telling us. I can point out that if oil does plumb new lows, and go to $18 or $20, then it will look like a break of a hypothetical long-term trendline I charted here perhaps a week or so ago - so if that happens, I'll pull out the long-term charts again!

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