Thursday, January 15, 2009

Gold and dollar still moving apart

I only have time for very quick comments with these charts. Gold (below, with the GLD ETF chart)) is continuing to drop off, after losing trendline support. But it's on its 50 dsma and the indicators on the daily GLD chart are saying to keep an eye on, because they are reaching a point where there can be either a consolidation or a bounce up.

Personally, I tend to think it's consistent with traders wondering whether in these times of uncertainty, gold will replace US bonds as a safe haven - and maybe that does happen, but when? Since I posted the TLT chart a few minutes ago, TLT isn't looking quite as strong (though bordering the zero line and slightly positive) - all consistent with uncertainty about whether (and when) to turn to bonds/dollar versus gold. Note that the recent high in TLT (daily chart posted previously) didn't have significant negative RSI divergence, which is one of the reasons (among others) that I harbor the thought it still has one more new high ahead, even if it's only a slight new high. When you look at the TLT hourly chart (here to the right), it looks like it's simply just testing back to the 200-hour simple moving average, which is normal before a resumption upward. (Obviously if it loses the 200-hour SMA then that can be a signal, so we'll see.)

The UUP chart as a proxy for the US dollar (since it's the ETF that I can get charts of, intraday) is definitely looking strong and consistent with the idea of a Fibonacci projection to or above 91 in the dollar itself. Like the VIX, UUP is pushing up its 50 dsma and upper Bollinger Band - currently signs of strength, given that the indicators are also looking positive:


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