Saturday, January 24, 2009

Gauging technical potential for steel in the industrial sector

I've been posting various COT (commitments of traders) charts (for precious metals, currencies, equities and bonds) today at my UBTNB3 site. Here, I'll post the COT chart for copper (below) and use it as a vehicle to add some observations about the steel market. Why steel? Well, a forecaster I respect has suggested that steel could be part of the next major market direction. Yes, I know - everyone's focused on a kinder, gentler set of market investments such as biotechnology (which actually should be continuing to grow no matter what) as well as alternative energy and green technology. Yet there's another way to assess the future, in which building should resume and more important, other steel uses should ramp up (military and similar industrial technologies come to mind).

Perhaps this would also help the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a whole, or at least help it to perform relatively well compared to broader indices grappling relatively more with the financials and industries still succumbing to the credit market fallout. Steel may also pick up more quickly than other industrial metals, because the ability to stockpile inventories is rather less and therefore any pickup in demand relative to supply should perk up its price more swiftly. I've included "steel" in the news feeds topics (lower right side of the page) - so click that anytime, to help track developments in the steel market.

Without trying to weigh in too strongly on the fundamentals, I'm keeping an eye on US Steel (X) as a way to gauge this. I've stepped in a bit ... but will stop out if we lose critical near-term support ... and will step in more heavily if price and the indicators show improvement. Here are some thoughts I've marked on the charts. The comments about potential targets are quite preliminary. If price gets to targeted higher levels, then I may use that to TMAR (take money and run) on some of a position while playing the rest according to how the Elliott Wave pattern and indicators are showing.






It can be interesting to "cross reference" to the commitment of traders (COT) chart for copper - also a building material, though perhaps subject to more speculation - where the commercial positions as of Tuesday (Jan. 20) actually showed their net long position continuing to increase:

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