Plenty of puzzles in the markets

The S&P500 looks like it's tracing out a triangle in the hourly chart (which does a good job of depicting the combination of sharp moves and indecision that Merriman discusses in his commentary). Keeping it simple, it looks like a good idea to follow it whichever way it breaks out of this triangle. It looks to me like a "b" wave triangle that would lead to the markets rolling over to lower levels; but, we've got to respect that the market may wish to break out to the upside (even if an upward move would ultimately prove to be a corrective bear market rally).

Gold was up substantially but the dollar didn't seem to make a corresponding drop. Below are some basic charts of these two. I'm also posting more charts including longer-term views, as well as an updated TLT chart with some simple Fibonacci retrace levels, at my UBTNB3 site.

The gold chart with these daily bars shows promise of moving at least a little higher, and for that matter as long as within the channels and with indicators supporting, it retains the promise of traveling higher either in an Elliott Wave "B" wave (or something more bullish) or a Wolfe Wave - either to higher Fibonacci retrace levels or even to the ~1192 Fibonacci extension level I've got as a hypothetical objective on the very long-term yearly chart.

However, on the weekly chart I'm posting at the UBTNB3 site, you can also see that today gold went just up to a .618 Fibonacci retrace back to the highs, plus there's another (shallower) downtrending channel line gold may have to contend with. Though another correlation between the two charts may be the area ~926 which looks significant on the daily chart, and currently is the upper Bollinger Band level on the weekly chart.