I don't have time to post the McClellan oscillator and summation index as such, but you can find them via Stockcharts.com, and I have included the simplified versions of those for the NYSE in the charts overview below. We can certainly see that the ChartsEdge forecast for last week didn't quite work out in the SPX, but it did work well in the NDX. Normally it works rather well in both, so I rather expect that to be the case for the upcoming week. During this upcoming week, it shows that once again the NDX is likely to underperform. That fact alone - that NDX is acting weaker than SPX - tends to be bearish. Now you've got to remember that the NDX is relatively higher compared to its 2002/2003 lows and the November 2008 lows, yet here the point is that for the week, its movement tended to be a drag on the markets and that's bearish.
Other than oil ticking up, and the banks' drop on Friday being after a move up through the week, there's very little reward to the long side in most markets it seems. Here's a charts overview that also includes some of the technical indicators:

The TRIN looks like selling yesterday wasn't such a bad idea, particularly when looking at the 3-day moving average which does seem to be a good day-ahead sell when it digs particularly deep. I don't know that it predicts a downtrending week all week, but it was a good signal if you were watching it for downside movement Friday and probably Monday:

No comments:
Post a Comment