Overview of bonds, gold, and currences (dollar, yen, euro) - who's heading up, who's heading down

Here's an overview of bonds, gold and currencies. Let's start with TLT as a proxy for US Treasury bonds. We haven't looked at this in a while, but candidly, it's because the sideways movement was getting a bit boring! No doubt there are some looking for another wave down, but I agree with Tony Caldaro that these are due for another move up. The RSI is encouraging for that, and the 200 day moving average is still rising although weakly. TLT touched down to its lower Bollinger Band yesterday. Based on its position, it would be typical to expect some more consolidation before a strong move up. If trading bonds long, then it would be reasonable to put stop-loss protection at or just under yesterday's lows (if taken out, and it then looks like bonds are ready to move up again, then a long position can be re-entered with a view to more upside).


Gold's drop out of the 1,000 level was so sharp, it makes us wonder if the "B" wave might have completed there. It definitely didn't want to follow the ChartsEdge forecast for gold for this past week. Looking at chart position and the indicators, it can either reflex up, or even reach a new high. It remains within the uptrend channel lines and at moving averages for potential support. So depending on your trading time frame - and remember, I am a swing trader - it's not a bad idea to give gold a bit of room before throwing in the towel on its prospects for moving higher:




The dollar seems on path to get to 91 or above as I expected based on the Fibonacci setup pattern (which actually fit Hobbs' favorite, the "Triple Crown"). Only thing is, the move from that Fibonacci cluster looks rather choppy, so I'm really wondering if it will be able to get above the moving average and other resistance levels on the monthly chart, that we've looked at here before (look under the "dollar" label in the labels list at right). But for now, let's let it get to 91. At that point, a lot of folks especially the "gold bugs" will be asking whether it is a triple top?! But, what will be augering in the dollar's favor will be our view that gold will drop out of a "B" wave top. Then again - is it supposed to go along with another big leg down in equities - well, if the timing works, then that might really work out fine:

I updated my commentary on the daily, weekly and monthly views of the Yen during this past week (look under the "Yen" label). So you can refer to that for context, to understand what I mean when I say, I definitely agree with Tony Caldaro that the yen remains in an uptrend. Despite the steep drop, it fell right to a long-term trendline I showed, and the move up yesterday can be the initial move of a lot more to come. The still-rising 200-day moving average doesn't hurt either. Still - let's not be crazy - if trading this from the long side from here, let's use good stop-loss protection and look for a trading confirmation pattern to the upside. The indicators look favorable to the yen turning upward, so we'll want to see that improvement in the indicators continue:


I also share Tony's view that the euro is in a downtrend - and I know that there are other fundamental as well as technical analysts that see it that way. So the move down that we saw yesterday may be the beginning of a new move down in this chart: