Monday, March 16, 2009

Can be viewed as a "start" in either direction - equity market investors should remain wary

That QQQQ level of 28 is just where its 20 day exponential moving average is now. So the QQQQ's are likely to seek that level either tomorrow or later this week, unless max pain changes or unless max pain becomes irrelevant for this opex. The OBV indicator never was able to make it above its 30-day moving average. If you remember that I posted a chart of the NDX:SPX ratio in the past several days, you know that I pointed out it looked toppy and wondered when the Nasdaq might start underpacing the S&P 500 instead. Well that did happen over the last couple of days. If it is only the start of a trend change in this ratio, then that will be a bearish drag on the equities markets. Doesn't overrrule other factors, but is something to consider (chalk it in the pessimistic column for now) until that ratio picks up again.


Obviously the big question will be whether today's action is enough to relieve the overbought condition. For a swing trader, it can be the start of a pullback that would need to be followed by a buy trigger in order to come in and see if there's higher potential ahead. But as I mentioned, we'll also take a look later this evening to see if it should be viewed with a more skeptical eye. Here are the VIX, CPCE and TRIN charts:



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