Check Terry Laundry's T Theory update for other ideas on whether and when S&P 500 bottoms

Folks, as much as I'm keyed on looking for SPX 664 and Dow 6427 - and by the way, I think the indicators are supportive of the idea that we aren't at bottom yet - I appreciate keeping up with Terry Laundry's T Theory work at his T Theory website. Below is his chart he's posting in his public area of his site (which is also always listed in "other sites of interest" at the right side of this page). Just the fact that the SPX descended to (actually slightly below) his lower band boundary is something to keep an eye on. You can listen to what he describes about this, in his audio comments at his site, to really understand his thoughts on whether and when the market bottoms.

I'd just like to add - back on Thursday/Friday, I was saying that I didn't necessarily think the market would just drop in a stright line. Well, egg on my face, that's what it's been doing ever since the intraday high Thursday! Now that the CPCE and TRIN, and possibly VIX (as a kissback to trendline is indeed possible especially as I see some green futures now), are signaling we may get some bounce, it's worth once again examining your trading time frames and capabilities. Meaning the decisions you make about positioning should depend on whether you have the margin, time and interest to day trade or trade in and out day by day, versus swing trading or position investing.

I respect the idea we may get some bounce, especially since we accomplished today all the drop I would have expected based on this week's ChartsEdge weekly forecast (oh yes, that forecast really is about timing of cycle highs and lows and shouldn't be really taken to state absolute trend and levels through the week). I also do believe, personally, that the long-term Fibonacci retrace levels remain very much in play, still below today's levels. I'm even beginning to wonder whether those levels will be enough to contain this market! But if we do start to see some deceleration, as we get closer to those levels, then the indicators will start to conform to the idea that those lows may provide the support for which the market is searching.

Right now this week, perhaps the best "fundamental" reason to look for some bounce, aside from the various machinations that policy makers, etc. are trying to put in place, is that this is the first week of the month and traditionally that's when new money comes in and helps prop up prices. Today's dismal performance tends to undermine its effectiveness, for this important first day of the month. Maybe the old charm will kick in tomorrow and/or later this week. But don't count on it being enough to fix portfolios! Whether or not we see zigs and zags in both directions over the coming days, it sure looks like the equities markets have more downside work ahead.

Personally, I'm beginning to tilt to the idea that the markets make a turn (trend reversal and start rallying) in late March, IF that will be 1.382 years after the 2007 highs. Actually, it really depends on whether we pick October (SPX, Dow) or November (Nasdaq) of 2007. And, I'm not convinced whether this is the right way to calculate a Fibonacci time frame after the highs for identifying the possible subsequent low. So it is just a thought for now.

As always - be careful out there, and happy trading!