Dollar almost to 91 triple crown target; gold down but not out - yet

Gold has had some "surprisingly" weak days over the past week, so it's definitely down - but not out ... yet. That is, it isn't outside the uptrending channel lines on the chart, and it remains above its uptrending 50-day moving average. Now, it did meet our minimum "B" wave objective that was conservatively at 1,000. It remains capable of moving higher for a "B" wave completion, so we'll give it the benefit of the doubt so long as it remains within the uptrend channel. The indicators are also supportive of the view that gold is testing down in a pullback and retains bullish potential. Obviously, if it loses the channel support, those indicators will also turn more bearish and then we'll look for our "C" wave down idea to play out.


Conversely, the dollar has been moving higher and looks well on the way to our 91 target. Below is my daily chart, and then my monthly chart. Let's see what wave structure it uses in getting to 91 - that should give some clues into what happens after that. But, after you look at the daily chart, then look at the monthly chart and then I've got a few more comments below:

The resistance and target levels are more evident in the monthly chart (above). First, there's just the upper Bollinger Band which the dollar is now pushing up. But since the dollar is just breaking out above the prior consolidation levels, and looks like a second effort at pushing up the Bollinger Band (after a significant pullback that looks like it also did a kiss-back to the downtrendline I marked), it looks bullish enough to go higher, at least to the other prior high at 92.63 and the 200-month moving average at 93.52. The dollar's move above that downtrendline, and continued move up after that kiss-back pullback, also looks bullish. Then, I've also marked onto the chart a potential target/resistance level at about 95.99/96. This is based on the Fibonacci 50% retrace back to 121.29, as well as a potential C=A level higher. The indicators look strong on the monthly chart - so we may need to be prepared for the dollar to go above 96 too, especially if it's going into a third wave.

If the dollar is going to be so strong, that will mesh with the thought that we and some other Elliott Wave analysts have, that gold will decline in a C-wave. I'm aware that Tony Caldaro, as well as others, will be looking for much higher levels for gold - I'm just in a different camp on that issue, so we'll see. Meantime - first things first, I'm glad to see the "triple crown" Fibonacci setup apparently working to get the dollar higher, and let's see if it get get to and above the 200-month moving average which is now about 93.52.