Closeup of how VIX traveled to the edge of support today, with its implications

On my VIX chart, it looks like it went below my lower trendline. I am torn on this because, when you look close, you can also see that when I drew the trendline I missed that swing low point in late January by a little bit, but enough to skew the angle of it so that today's action would go down to it without violating under it. So there is a good possibility that my marking off the trendline is off enough, that we cannot call today a poke under that trendline. You can also see that today's candle touched down where one of the downtrending lines would go if I had extended it enough. Also in play are the lower Bollinger Band, and the 200-day moving average. All in all, it is quite possible that all the VIX did was test down to support by the end of day and slightly bounce up from that.

Here, let's take a closer look. Below is my standard VIX chart with the markings that I already had placed onto it, well in the past:


Next, here is the same chart, except that just now for this post, I corrected that lower trendline to more accurately pick up the bottom of that late January swing low point, and sure enough it does also underscore today's low. Plus, I extended the downtrendline that I mentioned - and you can see that indeed, today's low looks like it tests that also - which looks like validation of this as a "cornerpoint" on my VIX chart.


Finally, here's the VIX chart with indicators but without my trendlines. This one lets you see that the lower Bollinger Band, and the 200-day moving average, are both at or very near today's low. The touch down was not enough to turn the Bollinger Bands pointing downward.


I believe all of this validates my thought that the VIX tested support but did not break support today. So, a move lower in VIX would tell a different story. But the shape of the VIX on the decline of the past several days looks like it supports a new downtrendline, one that the VIX may yet jump above. The implications are that the VIX is at an important intersection. If it moves lower, I must view that as strong evidence supporting equities. Conversely, if it moves higher that could either postpone a move lower or actually propel VIX higher. I'm thinking that the VIX will not move lower from here, and that it's more likely to move higher rather than simply postponing a lower move. I'll explain why in a separate post examining the S&P 500.