If you're watching closely whether to buy, sell or hold - you're not alone; markets not in safe territory yet

Plenty of folks will have considered that a small reverse H&S may have played out (as there have been some that haven't), in addition to all the other ways this market can be sliced and diced. Without getting into Elliott Wave counts since there are various ways to look at it (finished 5 down? finished a third wave down? you get the idea), I've marked on this chart some of the more salient points. One is that the market is testing the November 2008 lows in the area of 741 on the S&P 500. Another is that it's testing toward resistance from the swing low of February 23. Swing traders on the daily will be marking this as day 5 from the low of Friday and wondering if and when there's a pullback, and from then whether or not the market will trigger up from a pullback or just roll over again. On the hourly chart - and below, I'm using SPY to see the volumes - the on-balance volume (OBV) never really picked up the way I'd like to see to be confident of a long trade. On the daily chart (also below), it's testing up toward the 20-day exponential moving average, which can be a resistance level the way the chart is looking. A few more pennies would touch it but also overlap the February 23 lows - sure, that can happen, and if it does it would clear up some ideas about the Elliott Wave count - but it doesn't "have to happen." Volume was a little lighter yesterday than Tuesday, and not stellar today. Indicators on the daily are better, but not confirming that the markets don't have to worry about new lows yet. So, there remain good reasons to be cautious.