Saturday, March 28, 2009

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in an Elliott Wave count in this S&P 500 rally

First I'll describe the good, and tonight it's a photo from Life magazine (copyright Time, Inc. but found on Google images, available for personal noncommercial use only) of "Tiros spun in magnetic field/RCA" - at the bottom of this post. Makes me think of how ChartsEdge does amazing things with their market forecasts derived from the earth's "standing waves," VLF, Schumann resonance and all that. Next, the bad - which for my purposes right now, is that the Elliott Wave count for the rally might be certain but then again might be subject to differing interpretations (unless one or another alternative gets confirmed by subsequent action). And now, the ugly - I've placed some markings on top of one of Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave charts (sorry Tony! - and folks, you can see the original and all Tony's charts, at his website included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of this page. Tony's count had marked, consistent with Elliott Wave as well as his own "special sauce" (my term) Objective Elliott Wave, that an A-wave probably completed its five waves up mid-week last week, shortly before last Friday's opex. My "ugly count" marking is a different way of looking at it. I'll admit, I think my alternative here (marked in red on top of Tony's chart, below), has some flaws from an EW perspective. If it were valid, it would suggest a C=A level (oh, I'm always looking for valid C=A levels!) was reached on this past Thursday as the market pushed into 833. It would also have the C-wave in a diagonal triangle wedge that implies the market has a deep drop ahead. Another way of looking at the rally is that some or all of it forms a leading diagonal that actually has bullish implications for much more to come in the rally - I haven't marked that, but I think Tony refers to it in his comments this evening (and it's something I've wondered about too). Here's the chart:


And here's the pretty picture I mentioned:

Just looking at this photograph makes me want to pontificate about Elliot Waves, cycles, trendlines, and even Gann angles and similar methods. But it's very late for me this evening, so I won't do that - I'll just leave it to be appreciated pretty much on its own. (Remember folks, this is (c) Time, Inc. and for personal noncommercial usee only.)

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