Merriman's Comments for the Week beginning March 30 in the S&P 500, crude oil, commodities, and market psychology

Comments for the Week Beginning March 30, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview
The countertrend Venus retrograde rally in stocks in stocks continued through most of last week. In fact, the lead article of Friday’s Wall Street Journal declared this a new bull market, as the “Dow (is) Up 21% in 13 Days in Quickest Rally Since 1938…” On Thursday's high of 7931, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 22.5% from its 12-year low of 6470 on March 6, the day Venus began its retrograde motion. Other world indices made their multi-year lows the following Monday-Tuesday, March 9-10. And all continued higher last week. As stated in last week’s column, “It is not unusual to see a market making a multi-month high or low nearby to Venus turning retrograde, and then reverse in the opposite direction until the time its motion returns direct. If the Venus retrograde is more powerful than the Sun’s translation to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square, then the market should continue its rally for a few more weeks before taking out the low of March 6-10.”

For some strange reason, the investment community has accepted the rule of 20% up or down as the definition of a bull and bear market respectively. As a Cycles Analyst, that is not our definition of a bull or bear market. It is not measured in terms of percent gain or loss, but rather according to length of time and pattern. For instance, it is “bullish” if the high of a new cycle is occurring after the 8th week. It is bullish if both the trough and crest of the 13-21 week primary cycle are higher than the trough and crest of the prior primary cycle. This new cycle is only three weeks old. The crest of the previous primary cycle was 9088 (January 5-6). We won’t know if this primary cycle’s trough is higher than the prior one until it ends in about 10-18 more weeks. The last primary cycle (March 6) certainly was lower than the prior one (7449 on November 21). As you can see, this market has a long way to go before it can be defined as a new bull market.

You might also find interesting the last three major DJIA rallies since the economic crisis hit in September. The first lasted four weeks, from October 10 to November 4. The DJIA rallied 1772 points, from 7882 to 9654. The second rally lasted almost 7 weeks (Nov 21-Jan 6), from 7449 to 9088, and covered 1639 points. This one has now lasted 3 weeks, and in this time the DJIA has risen 1461 points so far. It is not that this isn’t a bull market. However, except for that arbitrarily accepted “20% rule,” there is nothing to confirm it as such as of this time. Of the three post-crash rallies, this one has so far gained the least amount of points. And now we are right in the middle of the Venus retrograde zone (March 6-April 17). This is a point where a sharp but short reversal can occur (see “Short-Term Geocosmics”). In fact, most stock indices did start to pull back on Friday, right on time, according to this rule of “retrograde motions” in Financial Astrology. This rule states that if a market is making a significant high or low when Mercury or Venus (and probably Mars) turn retrograde, then that “trend” may be briefly (but sharply) interrupted at the halfway point of that planet’s retrograde motion.

The mid-point of the Venus retrograde period had a similar impact on Crude Oil, Grains, and Currency prices last week. All had been up sharply since the week Venus turned retrograde. All made new highs for their cycles into last week. But then each of these markets ended the week with significant pullbacks.

Short-Term Geocosmics
We are right in the middle of the Venus retrograde period now (March 6-April 17) as of March 27. As discussed above, it is not unusual to see a sharp but short reversal around this time in any market that started a new trend at the time of the retrograde. Since the U.S. stock market made its primary cycle low right on March 6, as Venus turned retrograde, and it has been up ever since, this market is a good candidate for such a short-term decline right about now.

There is another concern looming on the horizon. Transiting Mars is about to begin its “translation” to the Saturn-Uranus opposition, April 4-15. In 2008, such “translations” were accompanied by sharp declines in stock indices throughout the world. It hasn’t been that way in 2009. In fact, it has coincided instead with sharp rallies. Note that the last “translation” occurred with the Sun making the same aspects to Saturn and Uranus (opposition and conjunction respectively), March 8-13. That coincided with the low in most world stock indices, from which started this current bull run. We wait to see if a similar decline will happen this time into April 4-15), with another strong advance to follow. Or, if instead, new cycles highs in stock indices form then, and it is just the opposite.

The one thing that does seem almost certain, however, is that with Mars in opposition to Saturn, followed by its conjunction to Mars (and all of this occurring in mutable signs), the markets will be volatile. These are signatures that oftentimes coincide with the threat of military conflicts or terrorist activity, and a tendency towards aggression on the world political stage. In terms of nature, it can coincide with fires, explosives, as well as tornadoes, earthquakes, or volcano eruptions.

Longer-Term Thoughts
Here it comes.
Last week’s report stated, “… the first non-lunar aspect made as we begin spring will be the Sun square Pluto on Monday, March 23. With Pluto in the picture as the spring equinox begins, the focus is once again on debt, for Pluto rules debt, death, and taxes.” So what were the themes of all last week? Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal started off with “White House to Hunt for New Tax Revenues.” The front page snippet said, “The White House plans to seek new tax revenues, as lawmakers move to pare proposed spending increases and tax cuts.” Well, we welcome the consideration to pare back on the proposed $3.6 trillion spending plan. But we worry about paring back on the tax cuts promised to 95% of the population after only 1-2 years. I am not sure the American voter understood the tax break would be so… temporary.

But it does fit in with the waning phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle (2001-2020), described so often in past columns. This is when federal deficits increase, and are soon followed by increases in taxes and interest rates. So far we haven’t had the increases in taxes or interest rates. But now as we approach the middle of the Saturn-Pluto cycle (i.e. the waning square of November 2009-August 2010), we see the winds of change coming.

Yet this doesn’t have to be a negative, and the very next day the Wall Street Journal printed a story titled “White House Leans Towards Tighter Enforcement of Taxes.” The title sounds ominous and certainly consistent with one’s worst nightmare about Saturn square Pluto (i.e. getting that dreaded notice from the IRS that you will be audited). But within that article comes a glimmer of hope, fairness, and entirely consistent with suggestions on how to handle the deficit problem positively in light of the Saturn-Pluto history. Midway through the article, John D. McKinnon writers, “A growing number of experts… say the U.S. should consider switching to more efficient means of raising revenues – for example, taxes on consumption.” This is how it is done in many countries today – countries where the population has a much higher savings rate than the USA. Instead of taxing on one’s net income, which will always be unpopular and in dispute, a shift towards a tax on consumption might be more popular. A balance between these two may be more favorable. Obama can then keep his campaign promise, increase his popularity, while at the same time raising more revenues that escapes the U.S. Treasury through tax evasion or avoidance. In other words, lowering the inflammatory income tax, and by the same percentage (not a higher percentage) adopting a new consumption tax – or “VAT” (Value Added Tax). This would be a tax reform (in the USA) consistent with the Saturn-Pluto waning phase, while at the same time it would encourage a transformation of our addiction to debt and spending. Taxing on purchases – instead of on one’s working wages – will help individuals develop the habit of savings. One will think twice before spending carelessly.

In the waxing phase of Saturn-Pluto, the tendency was to spend and invest (i.e. “Appreciate your capital’). In the downside of the Saturn-Pluto cycle, the mantra is “Protect your capital.” This may be one way to transform this difficult phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle into something more fair and constructive, and in line with the principles upon which this country was founded (a tax on income was not part of this country’s founding). It is far more constructive to raise monies this way than to send the tax collectors out to audit more and more people. Of course, reducing the government’s parabolic spending spree could do the trick too.

Announcements
I will be giving a special one day intensive for subscribers to any of the MMA reports on Saturday, April 18, 11:00 AM – 4:00 PM, the day after Venus turns direct. Venus turning retrograde or direct has a very high correlation to the end and beginning of powerful cycles in many financial, markets. We want to be aware of which markets may be making cyclical tops or bottoms at this time, for they will be the most likely candidates for exceptional trading opportunities. Attendees can spend an afternoon and ask all the questions they wish about how I analyze a market, and why I forecast what I forecast in the various reports. If you have never been to one of these intensives with other MMA subscribers, you are in for a treat. This one-day intensive is free to any daily or weekly subscriber of MMA Reports, or to any yearly subscriber of the SOS or MMA Cycles report. For all others, the cost is $300.00 (but it is best if you become a subscriber at less than this amount, get to know the language of the reports, and then get in for free). The location will be the beautiful Asilomar Retreat Center on California’s Monterey Peninsula. For more information, contact our office at 1-248-626-3034, or by email at ordersmma@msn.com, and we will give you details as to the location and accommodations. Or http://www.mmacycles.com/articles/articles/special-one%11day-discussion-for-subscribers/.

We are also going to have another webcast for the world, a “Virtual On-line Discussion and Market Update with Raymond Merriman!” This “Webcast for the World” will take place on Saturday, May 2, 2009, just before the first of the three Jupiter-Neptune conjunction passages. Starting time will be 12:00 PM EDT (that’s 5:00 PM, GMT, or 9:00 AM, in Los Angeles). Via the modern technology of Vibation, Inc, this “latest update” discussion on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks), can be heard and seen in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You will be able to be part of the live broadcast, with a live audience, and with the latest charts visible on your computer screen that will be the focus of this presentation. You can ask questions directly to the speaker (Merriman) during this presentation. You can see and hear the other questions being asked by those in the audience too. You will be given log-in instructions upon receipt of your reservation for this event. This webcast will analyze the stock market, Gold and Silver, currencies, grains, T-Notes, and Crude Oil. It is a webcast you won’t want to miss if you are a trader or investor in any of these markets. The cost for this private discussion is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this on line event, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-30,-2009/virtual/ to register. Or drop us an email at ordersmma@msn.com or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034, and we will email instructions and pin number on how to participate. If you wish to be in the audience of this live presentation, taking place in Troy, Michigan, let us know and we will send you directions to the location.

(Please see the remainder of the announcements in the Merriman weekly comments listed at Merriman Market Analyst Weekly Comments - and remember, this is always included in the "other sites of interest" listed at the right side of this page.)

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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