ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 4/29; and comments for Fed Day and beyond

Market Map for Apr29

Posted: April 29th, 2009
Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map
Comments to ChartsEdge »


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Today being "Fed Wednesday" with any announcement at 2:10 pm, along with other things on the economic calendar today, can add volatility especially this afternoon. Remember that we don't have to be heroes, and that the day after "Fed day" is usually the better trading day!

From the swing perspective, we already know that above 875 points toward 881/884 (along with other pivots and levels identified by Tony Caldaro and Andre Gratian). The scenarios we are working with include:

* Andre's primary count view, that we are in a wave 4 up that would have a relatively mild pullback (perhaps to the 780/790 area but I don't want to speak for Andre on that), followed by a push to higher levels as he's showed on his trendline charts in his weekend updates;

* Tony's primary count view, that we are working out a large wave B up (and you can see his daily updates at his site, in addition to his weekend updates posted here, describing the likely count path along the way), that when completed will see the SPX up somewhere about 1100;

* Well - there's an EW view out of a certain town in Georgia, that seems to be talking about the markets being in a large wave 2 up that would target either the 1100's area or higher (such as a .618 retrace to 10/2007) in the SPX - but frankly, I don't see that count as having merit.

* Another wave 4 up view, as described in the AllAllan blogspot with trendlines charted out for the Nasdaq (see Daily Nasdaq 100 (All Allan, 4/23/09)), that says we're putting the finishing touches on the wave 4 up and either now, or soon, just starting the small first wave of what will lead to the big wave 5 down taking the market to new lows. I know that Allan of that blogspot is not the only trader who has that as a viable count possibility, and we should be cognizant of it too. One big clue that we see it would be if the SPX doesn't find support at the 780/790 area.

Meantime, we've got today and the rest of the week ahead of us. I think back to my little remark Sunday, about the ChartsEdge weekly forecast showing up from Monday's open with my comment that it might lead to buying a long ETF with a stop under Monday's lows and let it run for the week. Of course the market yesterday morning took out anyone with a stop at Monday's lows, but I would hope that the ChartsEdge daily map yesterday coupled with that weekly forecast would have either kept folks in a swing like that, or encouraging them to reset it. Because the futures are up now, and we've got the ChartsEdge daily map indicating higher. But the markets, like sports, throws these unexpected curve balls and requires quick reflexes, especially when looking at the short-term charts.

Taking a step back, the bigger picture hasn't changed and remains open to the count alternatives I described above. And the dollar is still above the trendline I've marked on its chart, with oil and gold remaining at levels lower than many expected for a bull run already, and bonds fell yesterday looking like they may play out the additional pullback I described this past weekend. So unless we see the markets fly past 884 with similar moves in other asset classes by the end of this week, we can expect to be looking at these same alternatives in these markets - sifting the tea leaves of indicators - this weekend. So continue to be careful out there today, and happy market navigating!