Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Sentiment indicators aren't showing immediate warning signs of a pullback

The sentiment indicators are actually a bit mixed today, but there are signs that can support a continuation of the equities market rally higher. For example, the bullish percent for the Nasdaq Composite at 53 has not yet rolled over and its StochRSI indicator hasn't either. The one for SPX (at 61.8 - Fibonacci fans can smile on this one!) did roll down but looks like it's either in the "bear kiss" phase, or trying to stay in action for another push upward. The ISE All-Equities did flick up again, closing at 180, but the put/call ratio measured by $CPCE was up at the end of the day. Granted, .82 isn't a greatly high number for CPCE, and this is after a compressing move down in this ratio over a number of weeks. But it did touch its upper Bollinger Band so it could even be viewed as an interim positive for the markets.

Tomorrow's calendar has several events, the most notable of which should be the Fed with any announcement at 2:10 pm (Eastern Time). The SPX closed with a doji candlestick today - a pattern signifying "a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers" (nice description from Stockcharts.com's glossary/chart school). So maybe we shouldn't hold strong opinions either, about which way the markets "must go" the rest of this week. I know my trendlines on my SPX chart (below, followed by sentiment indicators charts) aren't quite like Andre Gratian's, so I hope you can focus mainly on other information the chart is showing. Such as the relatively lighter volume yesterday and today, making the pullback of these two days look more orderly on the daily chart than they may have felt during the trading days looking at 5-minute and 15-minute charts. The other indicators actually remain in positive territory and not overbought. I don't want to be overly optimistic, but we should remain receptive to the possibility that the market keeps working off overbought conditions by the zigzagging it's been doing for a few weeks now* and could yet move higher.



*Trading buddy once told me to be alert for a pattern that looks like Bart Simpson's hair (it's Bart, right?) - the point being, after a rise followed by a choppy consolidation, with some amount of pullback, be alert for another push up that moves well above the consolidation range's levels. I don't know if he's seeing the current pattern in the SPX as fitting this description (I'll try to find out). If it does quality, either now, soon, or after a pullback - then it could make a nice move to follow. Just sayin' - be open to the possibility.

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