Friday, April 24, 2009

Example of some things QQQQ investors/traders are looking at in technical analysis today


For those looking at the QQQQ today, here are some things being considered - in addition to any other factors people use such as cycles (see the ChartsEdge intraday cycle map posted earlier, for example), Fibonacci levels, pivots, and trendlines on the daily/hourly charts. This chart to the right is a 15-minute chart. I've encircled the indicators that should be watched for a turn lower. Ideally, you will be watching these on the 15-minute, as well as the 5-minute chart, and the hourly chart. Same QQQQ's, just on these different time frames to make sure that the timing of a turn "works" well for these time frames.

Notice that the QQQQ's have been riding up the upper Bollinger Band as the indicators have confirmed the good trend up, which began with good volumes. Volumes have been falling off however. If the indicators cross down and roll over, you'll see it first in the 5-minute chart. If it "catches" then you'll see that picked up in the 15-minute chart. Then if it really starts a new movement reversal (in this case down), you'll see those indicators do the same in the hourly chart. If you are a slow-moving swing trader like me, you pay more attention to the hourly and daily charts. If you are a fast-moving type, you're probably playing off the 5 and 15-minute charts.

(Yes, I know some of you are using 1-minute charts. Too busy for me!! but the same rules apply in minature, don't they!!)

What about the volatility index? Okay, my chart is set up for the daily (although you can pull it up on hourly bars or faster time frame if you need to, of course). IMO (in my opinion), VXO would have to get under Wednesday's low in order to expect VIX/VXO lower. So I'm not seeing anything in the VIX/VXO chart that contradicts my hypothesis that last Friday a week ago, marked the rally's high point:

No comments:

Post a Comment