Thursday, April 16, 2009

Mid-day market note - volatility index, gold, and bonds (TLT)

As equities are rising today the volatility index (measured by VIX or VXO) is dropping and you can see the VXO on my trendline chart (below) touched down to the lower line quite nicely. Might pull up a bit or consolidate from here (not guarantee but possible). Looking like at least some of my trendlines on the volatility chart are working! Meanwhile it is interesting to see gold moving significantly lower, even as bonds (measured by TLT) look slightly weaker at the moment. Opex which is tomorrow can sometimes make for odd combinations of movements. Then again, as one comment left here recently pointed out, there are some cycle turning times to keep in mind including for gold (equities too of course). All in all - it's looking like our guideposts are working well, although some items - bonds and currencies - haven't yet confirmed they're moving as we've been discussing. But confirmation on some such as volatility and equities, and probably gold, and other items holding position to remain in contention for movements we're looking for, is heartening so far.




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