Postcards from the edge of this "wow!" rally in the banks and equities markets today

The approaching interim high for business confidence and the news from Wells Fargo helped fuel a Wow! rally today in the markets! The banking index ($BKX) finally pushed above the resistance levels and looks like it wants to get to its 200-day moving average. Some banks didn't participate as well, such as Citigroup, so it remains to be seen whether this can be better than a bear-market rally even in the banking sector. But for now there's no point in arguing with results! The transportation sector ($TRAN) did its part also - didn't confirm a push above 3000, but did recoup the losses of the past couple of days to position itself to get above that resistance level on any further strength from here. The next two charts show McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index comparison information for the S&P 500, and frankly I'm surprised at the negative divergence in the oscillator - something to keep an eye on. The Summation Index made it to the zero line so that's an accomplishment in and of itself.

When you look at the S&P 500 charts (daily and weekly), you'll see that the index pushed up well above the 833/838 Fibonacci cluster, and pressed up to the trendlines. Normally I'm thinking that the Fibonacci levels take priority and would have the markets pushing yet higher; so, will see. As for sentiment - the $CPCE closed somewhat above the 0.56 level recorded earlier today (which I posted, along with some ISE sentiment information and "max pain" options-related update, at my UBTNB3 blogspot during the trading day), which might be a bit odd given the push higher into the close. There was good volume along with that push higher into the close; just adding to the "tea leaves" that technicians will be sorting through by the open tomorrow, no doubt. For myself, I'm finding it interesting that the S&P 500 index is pushing those trendlines I mentioned, just as the old volatility index ($VXO) looks ready to test trendline support of its own.

The market action seems to be overtaking the ChartsEdge weekly cycle forecast, so it seems best to evaluate the market on other standard methods including the Elliott Wave and technicals. But today's ChartsEdge daily map with its "smile" held up quite well in pointing toward the firm opening being faded down, with the intraday lows being bought and so on into the move up into the end of day. Those looking for some Elliott Wave and Fibonacci-based ideas on short-term (hourly and day-by-day) market movements into opex might check out Anthony Caldaro's commentary at Elliott Wave Lives On (always included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of this page).