Market closure April 10

Many markets are closed today (I haven't looked up any schedule for futures trading), so later today I'll start posting some of the markets review that we normally engage in during the weekend. If any are trading any equities futures or markets today, you might take another look at the ChartsEdge weekly cycle forecast and consider whether it may kick in again, but I've got my doubts about its efficacy given that the week's action ended up looking rather inverse to it. It had indicated going up for a couple of days, and then that rally being faded. Instead, we had some volatility in the first couple of days, and then the rally. Perhaps the Weird Wollie Wednesday set that up when it went "off the map" by the end of day, giving a signal to expect a continuation move Thursday.

There's some market research indicating that around holidays, what the market does the day after the holiday tends to fade or do the opposite of what occurred the day before. That might be a bit surprising here since Thursday might have been a third wave, but we'll take a closer look at that this weekend.

The March 6-9 low was one of the market turning dates indicated in Merriman's 2009 Forecast Book (so if you don't already have that you might reconsider, if they still have copies available). At the time, however, not certain how much to trust that alone - since there are a number of turning dates indicated during the year - I was also looking at the McClellan Oscillator information, and the fact that it was the 1.382 year extension from the October 2007 highs. Now, the McClellan Oscillator may be signaling something else but we'll also have to re-check that after yesterday's action. We can start to think about what happens at the 1.618 time extension from 10/2007, which looks toward the late May time frame.

As for the current time frame, we might want to look again at Merriman's weekly comments from last weekend about rally timing, and then see what he's got to say this upcoming weekend. (My time is limited right now so will post more later.) One quick comment for now - there are some cycles reasons to think that this rally could extend through late May, or otherwise roll over and give us a new low into late May. Or alternatively, could extend to last about 5 months. Make no mistake however - the predominant way to look at all this, is that whenever the 2009 bear market rally high is in, the equity markets can be expected to roll over and lead to much lower levels into 2010 and 2011. Without losing sight of that, we'll do more exploration this weekend about the alternatives for the timing and scope of the market paths for the upcoming weekend and months.