Today (April 10) a probability reversal day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average per MMA

Readers who follow Raymond Merriman's uncanny financial assessments and predictions know that at the MMA home page is an indicator showing, each day, the "score" for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and also for silver. The score shows the probability level for a reversal in that index or commodity. Today is indicated to have a very high score as a reversal day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This score is their daily update on the weighted values of the Solar-Lunar cycles for this market index and the silver market, via the studies conducted in Merriman's “The Ultimate Book on Sock Market Timing Vol 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Trading Cycles,” and “The Sun, Moon and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader.” As he explains, any score over 100 means it has an above-average correlation to reversing from an isolated high or low if it forms that day. The higher the value, the more probable the reversal. To see these daily values, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/ see it at the top of the page. Here are the scores displaying for today:

Indices April 10, 2009 DJIA: 159.5 ** Silver: 84.99
NOTE: Anything over 120 has a higher than usual correspondence to a reversal in this market. For more information on trading Stock Indices or Silver (futures or options) based on this data, check out the MMA DAILY UPDATE REPORT.

Although the markets are not open today, it's reasonable to think that today may mark a turning point for this major equities index. But first, we apparently have to see it form a high day, meaning that on Monday the market will have to trade under yesterday's low in order to put in an isolated high. (Or maybe Tuesday's action would have to mark Monday as an isolated high, but that ends up being a few calendar days away so may not be valid under this system). And, if it happens, will it be a hugely significant reversal? How long would it last? I don't personally have enough experience with this indicator to say - I do know that I've seen it "work" in the past, I just don't know that it would necessarily have an effect that lasts more than a couple of days. We can look forward to Merriman's next set of weekly update comments during this weekend, to know how he may interpret what's ahead in these markets.

Remember, last week Merriman's comments included these statements: "Concurrent with this rally is the spreading belief that March 6 was the end of the long bear market, and that the trend has now truly reversed to bullish. Fundamentally there is much more agreement now by pundits that the economy and housing have also bottomed, and that the long-awaited recovery is underway. But is it? Or will we wake up after Venus turns direct on April 17 and realize that all these major financial decisions since March 6 were misguided, and all of these rosy forecasts are nothing more than wishful thinking and positive spin as we head towards the 14-year Jupiter-Neptune conjunction cycle (May-July will be its peak)? My bias is that stock markets will continue higher into Jupiter-Neptune, AND we will question the soundness of all these financial decisions made under Venus retrograde. They may come back to haunt us by the end of the year."

Merriman's bias should be respected; and, those who would like to review them again should check his website where they are posted under "Weekly Comments" (or look under the "MMA weekly comments by Merriman" label here to find where they have been posted here also). Perhaps he will also elaborate in his next set of weekly comments this weekend. Still - as he himself pointed out, it's just a bias, which is different from his statement of a probability based upon his methods. (And we'll be sizing up the probabilities with our methods also this weekend!)

Have a good Friday evening all, and then we'll look forward to another set of weekend reviews of where the markets are and what we may expect in the days and weeks ahead!