Monday, April 20, 2009

Thoughts on today's market action and what's next

Equities fell today, giving early indication that we are likely to see the pullback, a test of the March lows, or worse. The dollar etf, UUP, rose above its 200-day moving average. Many equities indexes fell to their 50-day or similar MA's. But the SPX fell just under 833 which can be bearish if it can't regain that. If we see more of this tomorrow, then a move up later thisweek may be just a pullback up before rolling over even lower.

FXY higher, also gold, with euro lower, oil too. All fits except I'm not sure about gold so will keep an eye there. I'm thinking Wednesday will be the day to analyze the tea leaves to see the significance of all this, including the banks, transports and real estate. And of course the VIX! I'll be very surprised if it goes under 33. If it does I'll reassess that but I get the impression VIX wants up for a while at least. It may be a while before buying is wise, IMO.

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