Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The TRIN indicates that we may be premature if looking for equities to move much lower

While the TRIN itself is flickering between positive and negative for the day (approximately 1.6 or a bit above), the moving average levels of the TRIN need to be considered. This is especially true for position investors and swing traders. Here's what Stockcharts.com says about TRIN interpretation according to the founder of this indicator, Richard Arms:

Richard Arms developed the TRIN, or Arms index, as a contrarian indicator to detect overbought and oversold levels in the market. Because of its calculation method, the TRIN has an inverse relationship with the market. Generally, a rising TRIN is bearish and a falling TRIN is bullish. Sometimes you will see the scale of the TRIN inverted to reflect this inverse relationship.
.....
A number of TRIN interpretations have evolved over the years. Richard Arms, the originator, uses the TRIN to detect extreme conditions in the market. He considers the market to be overbought when the 10-day moving average of the TRIN declines below .8 and oversold when it moves above 1.2. Other interpretations seek to use the direction and absolute level of the TRIN to determine bullish and bearish scenarios. In the momentum driven markets, the TRIN can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods of time.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:trin
The TRIN isn't the only indicator to use, but the way it's looking with the moving average seems to warrant consideration. Right now it's been continuing to rise, but all my moving averages on my TRIN chart from Stockcharts.com - the 3-day MA, 10-day MA, 13 DMA, and 20 DMA are above 1.2. The only exception being the 50 DMA but that's to be expected. So when I'm sizing up this market and looking for weakness, I would prefer to see TRIN moving average levels that are lower (or, that are lower and just beginning to turn up).

Again, just one indicator, but should be kept in mind.

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