Weekly forecast for equities markets and gold generated by cycles analysis from ChartsEdge

ChartsEdge has generated their weekly update of cycles forecasts for equities markets and gold. Below are their charts showing these cycles-based forecasts for the upcoming week of April 20-24 (their longer-term forecast charts are available only by subscription, via their website always included in the "other sites" listed at the right side of the page here). We've featured a lot of discussion on this blogspot about a turning point, whether and when the rally would give out, including my own thoughts based in part on other cycles work (like the Armstrong time window) and the volatility index. And even started to consider whether the bulls or the bears would prevail in any pullback, whether the markets would go so low as to test the March 6-9 lows or even to new lows. Well, if the ChartsEdge cycle forecast for equities plays out this week (as it did this past week!), then we might think that the rally hasn't even ended yet. I'd been thinking of 881 to 884 in the S&P 500 based on Fibonacci retrace levels (.236 back to the October 2007 highs, and .786 back to the January 6, 2009 highs), which we didn't quite reach yesterday.

This forecast looks like there's a mild pullback and then another push up to overshoot those Fibonacci retrace levels. Depending on whether the market is successful in doing that, we may even see whether or not the SPX can make it above 944, to get actually above its January 6, 2009 high; before a real pullback. Well - sometimes all the guideposts we use are saying the same thing, and sometimes they diverge. This is one time when there's some divergence - so we'll have to maintain our guard, and be careful in navigating this market!

As for gold - if you've been following along for a while, you know that we are maintaining two alternative views of its prospects. One is that gold is in a wave 2 pullback, as indicated by Tony Caldaro in his Objective Elliott Wave (site in the list at right, including where you can find his public charts link for gold and other markets); we've calculated that a wave 2 pullback could go somewhat lower, showing that in prior posts here (use the "Gold" label for these prior posts). A wave 2 pullback could poke under the 850 long-time pivot, but then a rise back above that level would be the precursor to a very significant wave 3 up. Alternatively, we've measured out that an Elliott Wave (B) could have topped at 1007, and that we've already seen the beginning waves of a large (C) wave down that could fall under 681. Obviously, these two alternatives would lead gold in very different directions! So we want to remain alert for clues in gold's movement over the coming days. I am aware that there are cycles viewpoints referring to a trend reversal in gold, and that could mean the recent decline has been simply the pullback before a big move up - however, let's allow gold to prove it to us so we don't get "stuck" in a bad trade if wrong.

(Similarly, I've been marking the dollar as moving in a wedge-shaped diagonal moving in a ziggy-zaggy fashion to higher levels, into late May. So long as it remains within those parameters, I'll stay with that idea. But I'll continue to monitor and will focus more intensively on the dollar if it's showing something different.)

Well, the above comments and thoughts are just my own. ChartsEdge being one among the various sources I find helpful as guideposts for where the markets are heading. So, without more, here are the cycle forecast charts for the upcoming week, as generated and provided by ChartsEdge: