Saturday, May 9, 2009

Bull Market vs. Bear-Market Rally: You be the judge whether the huge trends on these money supply, GDP, unemployment and CPI charts have "finished"

Some analysts are already speaking about the next bull market that we're now in, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and many other indices haven't bettered their January 2009 highs yet. Even if and when that happens, there should still remain some debate about whether all the lows are in and all the indices can march on to new highs ... or whether any rally that continues for some more months, will eventually give way to another bear market leg down to new lows sometime over the next year or so. Now, remember that this post is not about the market's next move and how to position for the next week or two. It's about the bigger picture and the longer-term trends in some key economic indicators. Specifically, money supply, GDP, unemployment, and CPI. The charts for these indicators appear to remain in trending mode still. So even though the stock markets tend to lead the economy by several months, do these charts give a serious indication that a reversal to finish the past two years' trend is about to place them back in a more positive direction? These pictures look to be worth a thousand words, so you can take a look at them, and be the judge.

The charts below are courtesy of ShadowStats.com, and are current through the end of April 2009 (note of course, the unemployment rate announced yesterday at 8.9 notches that chart's curve a bit higher than shown below):

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