Saturday, May 9, 2009

Nasdaq's McClellan data signal it's rolling from a swing high - will it lead the other markets down?

The McClellan data for the Nasdaq indicate that it has topped out, at least for a swing high of some proportions. Meaning that a pullback at least, is more probable than not for the Nasdaq at this time. Not a guarantee of course - but based on the data, most likely. This is evident from the McClellan Oscillator and ratio index (on the Nasdaq "blue" chart, second chart below). I can also report to you that one of the analysts I like to refer to has marked the Nasdaq in this manner, based partly on similar volume and breadth indicators along with his proprietary timing methods (his work is by subscription only so I can't really quote him here). Sometimes the "animal spirits" of the Nasdaq help lead the market, so will it lead the markets to a pullback downward? The NYSE McClellan chart ("yellow" chart, immediately below) looks relatively weak in its Oscillator too, and just beginning to look weak in its ratio index.

In both charts, the Summation Index still looks relatively strong, and may support a new rally leg after a pullback. I'd like to add that we've been pointing out additional signs in recent days of the Nasdaq having reached a potentially significant Fibonacci extension level (and the QQQQ's reaching a P&F chart resistance level), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average having reached its own potentially significant Fibonacci retracement level just on Thursday. So, as strong as these markets have proven since the March lows, the signals for a trading high rolling over into a trading pullback have increased.

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