Sunday, May 10, 2009

What to expect for the week ahead in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold markets: cycles forecasts from ChartsEdge for week of May 11

Where are the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other equity markets likely to go this week? Not to mention the price of gold? Using cycles to assess markets, especially when combining them with indicators and price support/resistance levels, is one good way to approach the markets. Recently, Raymond Merriman's comments (which I posted yesterday morning, or you can use the "MMA/Merriman" label at right to locate those) referred to the March lows as possibly having bottomed a larger-degree cycle - and I'm beginning to be more convinced of that. While I'm not ready to buy into the "sunspot" theory** that the markets bottomed "the low" (we don't know yet whether the sunspots themselves "bottomed"! lol), I'm now much more on the bandwagon with Tony Caldaro's primary count for the equity markets. I do find it interesting that he's allowed for some moderation of the price target levels for the bear-market "B" wave rally, as I understand some of his recent commentaries. (Tony's weekend update posted here yesterday.) I also remember seeing an interview - and commenting on it here - of a savvy hedge fund director who said back in late March that the markets would be too ziggy-zaggy for average, small investors and traders to navigate. Give that guy an award, because I've gotta say the markets seem to be proving him right. Too much trend (or fear of trend) for most range-bound traders to feel comfortable surfing in and out, and not enough predictable triggers for most swing traders to cash in big. Weirdly enough, the silly old "buy on Monday and exit Thursday/Friday" canard seems to be work well enough in this market - go figure!

**Update note - sunspots are mentioned by another EW group, totally unrelated to anyone I cite here. (I can say that my own personal EW ideas were met by the March lows as being significant, although I've vacillated on what the bigger EW picture says comes next. Above the January highs in SPX and Dow will have me parsing the bullish cases in more detail. Bullish meaning, continued bear-market rally potential.)

For those who, like me, are subscribers to ChartsEdge's longer-term forecasts (see ChartsEdge link at right side of the page), all I can say is - it's an exercise in patience, isn't it! And refer to my comments above. Definitely a reason for us to look at a number of methods here. And definitely a reason to be glad that Mike regenerates them dynamically each week afresh, through his neural net!

Without further ado - Below are the cycle forecasts from ChartsEdge for the upcoming week:

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