Comparing the Elliott Wave cases for and against another new low before higher highs in equities markets

There are potentially different ways to view the Elliott Wave scenarios for equities markets, as I've mentioned from time to time. At this point I've tilted more toward Tony Caldaro's ideas for the "B" wave up, meaning higher levels for the bear market rally after some level of a pullback. But there is a more bearish scenario that we shouldn't totally rule out, in my humble opinion. This would be the scenario that says, we're completing a 4th wave up and the next step is a 5th wave down to new lows. Some support for this more bearish view might come from a chart (below) that's from a website that a trading buddy pointed out to me, Christopher Carolan's work at http://carolan.org/. I'd like to examine this in more detail this weekend, along with a review of the case to be made for and against the "5th wave new lows ahead" idea.

Meantime, I believe that one "litmus test" quick way to gauge whether or not we're seeing the completion of a 4th wave up, is to have our backs against the recent highs in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the ETF for that, the QQQQ's. If the QQQQ's can vault to $36 and if the NDX goes to higher levels, then I would see this as confirmation for the "B" wave up case.