Tuesday, May 12, 2009

From easy street to queasy street: Can the market swallow more equity issuances by the banks?

The banking index which I charted in some detail recently (and posted here, use "Banking" label at right) still hasn't recovered from the weakness it showed at a Fibonacci level just as the "stress test" results were announced. Citigroup's chart sums it up about as well as any, so I've drawn a line showing the rather obvious level Citigroup's stock would have to surmount in order to look like a bullish breakout. These charts look like the bank stocks generally could have moved higher, and perhaps the best-positioned banks will do so. But certain large banks like Citi that need to issue more equity, and the banking index as a whole, are not showing the chart strength to attract new buying. It's tempting to refer to the "greater fool" theory of new buying needed to make stock prices go up ... well, I just did refer to it, didn't I?! Okay, let's say it in a kinder and gentler way: wait for a breakout to join any big buying wave! There are enough technical cautionary flags flying on these charts. The fundamentals are concerning too, as ably discussed in many other corners (including of course Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism) so I won't attempt to repeat them all here. Maybe the new equity issuances will attract sufficient buyers, but it's obviously dilutive to current shareholders. So can there be enough new buying to absorb the new equity, AND drive these stock prices higher? Price is the ultimate indicator. So the bank stock prices will show whether the banks have made it back to "easy street." Or whether investors will feel like they've moved back to "queasy street"!

No comments:

Post a Comment