My chart of the dollar has been showing that it's getting support at an uptrending line that suggest it may continue struggling upward for several more weeks at least. I know it's different from certain Elliott Wave people's ideas about the dollar launching into a massive third wave up (although I also don't understand how that squares with their ideas about equities continuing a massive rally upward, even if sunspots are involved - but I digress). It's also different from many analysts who believe the dollar continues to be on the verge of dropping into an abyss. I'll abandon the idea if my uptrend line gets broken (and especially if the dollar falls under 78), but now it is still intact and pointing to an area around 92 to 95, likely after several weeks. This is one of the reasons why I remain skeptical on gold for the present. Below are my daily and weekly charts of gold. You can see that gold hasn't been able to break above resistance on the daily chart. This may point gold to one of the targets I've mentioned, a C=A idea for Tony Caldaro's wave 2 pullback idea, at 845 which would test the long-time 850 pivot. If it happens quickly enough, it would also be a kissback down to prior broken resistance, and remain within the uptrend channel on my big-picture weekly chart. But if gold's decline lasts longer, then C equaling A*1.382 would be at 804.34, and equaling A*1.618 would be at 776.56. In addition to these numbers, we've the trendlines on my daily and weekly charts (below). There are two Elliott Wave alternatives I've incorporated into these charts - one being Tony Caldaro's idea of a wave 2 pullback before a beautiful new rally up. The other, which I'm leaning toward, in which gold completed a (B) wave up and pointing toward a (C) wave low. I don't really like this count for some other reasons, including that I don't really "see" how it makes a nice picture of the long-term gold chart. But the fact that the apparent (B) wave topped at my C=A target implies that it is more of a "three-wave" in EW parlance, rather than a five-wave as Tony's count would imply. If you don't know or care about Elliott Wave, that's fine. You can just follow along with these numeric targets and the trendlines (not to mention the indicators and perhaps cycles timing too).
My further discussion of the dollar, with my chart of $USD, is also below.
My chart of the dollar got very busy with all my lines on it ... but, I did add -just for today, a lower trendline that fits the two prior swing low points that the line is supposed to capture. The dollar hasn't fallen under it yet. I'm still comfortable with the idea that the dollar has more upside. Really, it looks like the dollar did a test back to a pink resistance line that it had broken above a couple of weeks ago. I also added a potential C=A calculation target, in case the chart is actually a large ABC instead of a diagonal wedge. It's partly based on thinking of the dollar as doing some kind of a larger (B) wave up. But I'm not certain of the big picture Elliott Wave count for the dollar so not wedded to that part of my hypothetical. The C=A target would be about 94.70 to 95 range, whereas before I'd been thinking of about 92 (based on Fibonacci analysis). I am also thinking that if the dollar does indeed remain above the uptrending line and get to 92-95 area perhaps into late May, that could be consistent with gold and equities continuing to be weak through that time frame. Gold, as I discussed above. Equities, as I discussed in my posting this morning about Nasdaq.
About equities, in addition to my earlier Nasdaq comments: I continue to believe the late May time frame will be critical. It can be a high or a low. I'll try to post some more comments on this idea tomorrow.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment