We'll probably never see US long bond prices that high, and rates that low, ever again - according to the charts

The prices of US bonds look like they reached a triangle target peak, back in December 2008. I had been thinking there might remain a possibility of one more new high based on a view of the Elliott Wave count, but the current decline indicates to me otherwise. Looking at the monthly charts shows that the peak in December may indeed have been the 5-wave thrust that put in the peak in bonds for a very long, long time - possibly for all time (although we may ourselves never know that personally!). The charts below show some of the initial thoughts about near-term targets. Over time, the rates should increase higher and we'll post subsequent analyses and charts for that. Meantime, readers here will find also some interesting charts and technical analysis at PTV-Investing Blog. They've included - among other things - technical analysis on US Treasuries (notes/bonds) with metrics for the decline there.

I've made some markings on these charts with the expectation they can serve as a "map" to the path of T-notes and Treasury bonds for coming weeks and months. I'm expecting that we'll see a C=A symmetry for the drop. Below those target levels will obviously signal a more bearish path, but I think it is premature for that. My expectation is that after reaching that symmetry target for this leg down that's underway, bonds will rally (I marked a potential target about 123.88 to 124, for $UST for that rally down the road). Finally, weeks and probably some months from now, after that rally completes, I'd expect a more significant drop in these Treasury notes and bonds. (That might be when gold really takes off - just a thought.)

Conversely, if the rally that I'm expecting, down the road after this current movement down is finished, turns into a strong upward movement with $UST moving above 125-127 area, then just perhaps we'll see a new all-time high. But I sure wouldn't be counting on that.