Euro running out of room and into resistance?

The euro has proceeded higher from the apparent triangle, above the resistance of its 200-day moving average and the most recent swing high. But its swing high before that, at approximately $145, should provide more formidable resistance. Remaining under that level means it stays within triangle parameters. The monthly chart (below, under daily chart) shows the 20-month Bollinger Band midline is about $143, and a 50% retracement back to the 2008 highs would be about $142.50. Indicators on the daily chart remain strong (having pushed back up after the weakness a couple of weeks ago), but Friday's candle signals a reversal can be in the offing. If starting to head for the exits or getting defensive on the euro, one might allow for the possibility of $142/$143 if it wants to tie off those levels, but I'd change back to be more bullish the euro if it gets over $145.

If the dollar finds support at the lows it tested Friday, that would support the odds that the euro tests down to one of the lower levels as I annotated onto my monthly chart (below).