Monday, May 25, 2009

Notes for swing traders to consider for equities and gold (and iron/steel)

Equities investors and traders - in addition to the good updates we received here this weekend, you may also wish to take a look at Terry Laundry's T Theory update (chart and audio commentary) at his T Theory website. He's included some responses to questions (check the prior post about this, including his long term chart, using the "T Theory" label at right or just at his website). His method uses advance/decline (accumulation/distribution) so it's worth considering his views.

Sentiment - there certainly are various sentiment measures, but here's a data point at the ISEE charts and data: the ISE Equity-Only ratio finished Friday at 200. But the one at SentimenTrader looks a little more neutral as of the close Friday.

Historical note - according to a comment just now on Bloomberg TV, on this day (May 26, I suppose) in 1896, the Dow Industrials index was started, with an opening value of $40.94.

Gold investors and traders - I notice that there are two different paths that appear outlined for gold in the near-term. One, an upward path for this week in the ChartsEdge cycle forecast (posted earlier here, and available also at the Chartsedge site). The other, a path that would turn over and weaken but not seriously, in Chris Carolan's Solunar forecast for gold at his Carolan website. So, in addition to puzzling through the Elliott Wave count for gold at this juncture, it will be interesting to see which of these two gold "agrees with" during the week ahead. Depending on which wins out, we may see some type of triangular or diagonal movement set in as gold "decides" whether - or not - it wants to achieve my 1192 possible objective before reaching lower levels.

Finally, there's discussion again about the iron/steel markets. There's an idea that iron/steel may become one of the next bubbles. If that's to be the case, there may be plenty of time to get "with" that trend - if this is right, I'll have to find a better way to chart it than steel company stock prices.

But it reminds me of a similar suggestion about the defense/weapons sector, and I remember looking at the chart of Lockheed Martin (LMT) recently. There certainly are other companies in this sector that may be worth tracking too. At any rate, LMT looked in a consolidation, so if it breaks out to the upside from that, it may be worth going along (with appropriate stop-loss protection of course). Not advice, just something that investors might wish to assess.

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