Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Euro tracing out bearish pattern today - which can lead to a bigger drop

The euro moved slightly under yesterday's low today, both as measured by the $XEU chart and also the FXE exchange-traded fund. This creates the possibility that it's tracing out a bearish pattern that shows up in the hourly chart (at right). It's just the initial pattern with a lower high and lower low, but the volumes picking up on downward movement today suggests that the euro may have more downside to go.

Readers here have seen or can access my longer-term charts that indicate the euro can fall to much lower levels. Use the "Euro" label in the labels list at right, to locate those prior posts. Given that we've also seen the dollar begin to stabilize at key (potential) support (use "US Dollar" label to find those posts), the euro may be just starting down that path. If so, that could lead to the euro falling under $125.

Moving above yesterday's high at $140.02 in FXE ($140.03 in $XEU) would negate the bearish pattern currently traced out in the hourly charts.

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