TLT digging down into interesting test of how low it can go with US bonds' weakness today

Following up on my fairly detailed post here yesterday, Bonds on the run - when will their low be done? Some views (5/26/09), TLT has moved down again today to the point that it can either respect - or reject and move under - its lows of October 2008. Unlike the charts of US Treasury 10-year notes ($UST) and long bonds ($USB), both of which can meet symmetry targets above their October/November 2008 lows, the symmetry target I've been discussing for TLT which is under $87 would place TLT underneath those prior swing lows. A lot of people follow TLT so the psychological impact of fallunder under those swing lows about $90.62 would be significant. That doesn't necessarily clue us in either way as to whether or not it will happen. But, taken in conjunction with the 10-year notes' yield having reached a symmetry target already, and the amount of time for this second leg of the drop being just a bit longer than the first one, as well as the increasing volume in TLT that suggests capitulation may be in the works - we might consider whether this down leg might be close to done. The drop today could be very close to putting in symmetry targets for $UST and $USB, actually - check my prior post (referenced above) for the levels.

Notice that a swing investor or swing trader would not be interested in buying long unless and until there is a trigger day meaning a day that closes above the high of the prior day that had formed a low on this move. For that matter, the right thing to do is to wait until there's been a trend reversal pattern (basically, a pattern showing that higher highs and higher lows are starting). That's what we'll need to help confirm a low. Obviously that hasn't happened yet.