Monday, May 18, 2009

Fear's getting cheaper - when is VIX going to be a good buy?

As I see this chart of the VIX getting lower (hourly and daily charts below), I've got to wonder if it really just wants to touch down to trendlines once again. While I've got a number for it at 24.80, I don't really have the sense that it will go there, but that instead it's wanting a long goodbye for the 33.82 level it's been "resonating". For that matter, what about equities today? On an hourly chart of the QQQQ's (at right) I marked some comments about potential levels. The bear case is that it traced a leading diagonal (LD) from which the pullback can be significant, before another move lower. The bull case is obvious (it's moving higher, duh!) and has me remembering some of Raymond Merriman's weekend comments posted here.

My comments on the QQQQ chart are not intending to say, use the numbers as targets for more upside, but simply: if the QQQQ's get there then look for a reaction. Otherwise - given the relatively low volumes, be on the lookout for a reversal that starts on the 5 and 15-minute bars.
Especially if the VIX looks like it is starting to get support - and especially if the VIX pushes down somewhat more to knock on my lower trendline (see VIX daily chart below).

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