Great day for equities - quick views on how this fits in the bigger picture

Today's push propelled the major indices higher, although what they shared with the banking index was not making new highs. Andre Gratian's updates to his subscribers noted projection levels for this advance intraday, and Tony Caldaro's Monday update this evening (accessible via site feed at lower right, or his website Elliott Wave Lives On) mentions not only pivot levels but also keeping an eye on which Objective Elliott Wave count may be in play. He described those in his weekend update (posted here also, under the Elliott Wave label) ... if you understand the significance of his comments about whether equities might push somewhat higher in his Major wave C, you'll realize that investors need to be wary of what happens when it concludes. Still - we need to wait and let the market show whether it moves to new highs in this rally to such a C-wave level. The advance today was on low volume, as you can see on the daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (below). Especially coming on the heels of the McClellan Oscillator having plunged under its zero line (as we showed last week), this low-volume movement continues to keep many traders and investors very wary.

Let's not forget that the QQQQ's remain under the $35 resistance level, and the banks were not able to break out today despite this large percentage rise in the broad indices. The Dow Transports also remain under their highs of the week before last week. These resistance levels might still give way, but unless and until that happens the market remains on thin ice.

A lot of people have their eyes on the idea of a pullback to the 50-day moving average that forms the right shoulder of a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. That may happen. But the very fact that so many see it, makes me wonder if something else may be going on. This skeptical habit is something my late trading mentor taught me. Something else I haven't forgotten is that the late May time frame looks significant to me, based on the Fibonacci time calculations I posted here the weekend of March 7-8. I also ran some additional, preliminary Fibonacci time calculations based on the monthly charts, that now have me considering potential significant market levels (lows?) for September 2009 and June 2010. (These are based on running Fibonacci time extensions from the high to high, 2000-2007, and the low-to-high, 2002-2007.) If the inverse head and shoulders pattern looks like it is showing up, we'll play along, but we shouldn't forget that there can be other possibilities as well.