Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Gann fans (and gold bugs) take note: dollar testing the Gann angle fans and may get support to move higher - charts from PTV's Andy Askey

Not only do I appreciate that someone else is taking an objective look at the potential in the U.S. dollar's chart, but I also appreciate the elegance and technique in Andy Askey's work at PTV-Investing Blog. Below are two of Andy's charts posted there today. He's clearly more expert than I with Gann angle analysis, so I'll quote him on this: "When viewing the 2001-2008 correction of a large bull move in the USD, price has bounced and is moving back toward the 1×1 angle (the inverse slope of the seven year correction). Price is near $80 at the 1×1 which is the same price as the 50% retrace on the chart above. I believe that $80 will serve as significant support unless the bounce is over. The 1×1 angle should hold if the USD plans to take out the recent high price."

I do find it interesting that he identifies support about $80, as I have other information on a chart pivot level of resistance/support at $80.50 for the dollar. I've posted here about ways to interpret the dollar's chart, as well as the charts of gold and the euro. Based upon these, I don't really join the crowd of those who say the dollar's demise is at hand and that gold and the euro will skyrocket. From a fundamental perspective, I have questions about those arguments too. As I've mentioned, in a real economic depression scenario, I can easily see people resorting to bartering and other off-monetary systems that are web-based. A lot of people might find that more convenient than lugging around heavy chunks of gold. Okay, okay, gold may have its place and time - I'm just not convinced that it's right now.

If gold, as well as the euro and the dollar, prove otherwise in the charts then I won't argue with that. Meantime, there are cyclic and chart reasons to think that the dollar isn't ready to slide to new lows quite yet. Below are Andy's charts, with his Gann angles marked out into those Gann fans. You can glean some more information on Gann analysis, as well as his thoughts on these and his other charts, at his site (which I've also included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page).



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