Wednesday, May 13, 2009

SPY nearing 87 so consider whether that meets "max pain" for opex Friday

We noticed and posted here just recently, that 87 seems to be the "max pain" level for the SPY (ETF for S&P 500), using the calculator at that "max pain" website included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page.

Today's market action seems skewed to the downside right now, although the ChartsEdge forecasts had indicated a tendency to edge higher this afternoon. Well, it's stil just Wednesday. But it is interesting to note that 87 is just about where the SPY's 200-hour moving average is right now.

The VIX moved above 33.81 today, although at the moment it's hovering below that so it's too soon to say whether it closes above that level this afternoon.

The way you respond to this technical situation certainly depends on whether you're actively trading or just swing or position investing. We should check the "max pain" levels again, especially tomorrow, to see if there is a significant change. Aside from all other analysis methods - each of which deserves attention of course - it can be plausible for the 200-hour moving average to come into play into opex this Friday, so long as the market's trend isn't affected by some other strong event.

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