Thursday, May 21, 2009

How are you reacting to the dollar's scary drop and gold's push higher? Don't forget these key levels

Is the dollar falling into the abyss as gold skyrockets with massive hyperinflation? Well, sorry but .... not yet. The dollar actually has a bit more to the downside if it is going to reach our symmetry target at about 79.88. To help readers see this, I added a few lines and a green circle to my U.S. dollar chart ($USD, below). That chart is still busy with the baggage of a lot of analytics I had been using previously - we can ignore most of that now, it's either outlived its usefulness or ended up being indicators of when my prior hypothesis had to be ruled out. Here were are coming into an important time window, next week for the end-of-May and early June time frame, and the dollar can move to the indicated level while remaining above its prior swing low back in December. We'll want to look for positive divergence as it does so. Meantime, what about gold?

My daily chart of the $GOLD continuous contract is also below. It's impressive that gold rose to test the $940's but it really needs to break above $963 and then of course $1007/1008 to rule out the idea that $1007/1008 was only a (B) wave that would imply a (C) wave drop to new swing lows. Yes, it is outside the channel lines I drew on the chart; and yes, the indicators are where they can signal a new bull rally up. But notice I say, where they "can" signal a new bull rally up. The confirmation just isn't in yet. So long as the dollar remains above its December 2008 swing low, and gold remains under its high of late February/early March, this clues us in that the dollar might not be plummeting into the abyss, and gold might not be skyrocketing. Also, that equities may have more vulnerability again if the dollar finds its low perhaps at the symmetry targete of $79.88 and then moves up to higher levels.


No comments:

Post a Comment