Oil as measured by WTIC continuous contract is almost to initial target

Oil as measured by the WTIC continuous contract (my chart below) is almost to the initial target which is a .382 Fibonacci retrace to its late September 2008 swing highs. For this post, I added two brown channel lines that can represent where this leg of the rally may stall out. This may turn out to be a little shy of the $65 level so I'd recommend remaining alert. What about the ideas that oil may rise higher, such as to $90? Well, that may be - but notice that there is a hint of negative divergence just beginning to show up in the chart. It isn't much, but if negative divergence continues to show as it edges slightly higher into the target (at or just above $63), then we shouldn't be surprised if oil goes back to the one of the lower channel lines to test support. Keeping support at the channel lines should keep it on track if it wants to rally to much higher levels. Breaking channel support would obviously be concerning. Notice that the 200-day moving average is still declining, which is a bearish condition. (Also remember that on our long-term chart, this looks like testing back up toward the bottom of a long-term channel line that was broken on the huge drop.) All in all, I'm glad to see it moving toward the initial target, and then it might not be a bad idea to tighten stops or use any similar strategy. Then oil can demonstrate with its movements and the indicators, whether it's got the likelihood to continue higher or not.