ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 7/21; and some comments

ChartsEdge map for 7/21

Author: Mike Korell
Chartsedge Daily Market Maps


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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!

Folks, you'll remember that Mike provided a "triple 2-day forecast" for equities a couple of days ago. So it will be interesting to see how today's market map works out, on the basis that he's shown how the weekly cycle forecast factors in with the BP sensor data and pattern recognition. (See the prior posts on that here, you can use the "ChartsEdge daily" label.)

Just some comments of my own - it's been quite interesting to see the progression, up from 912, past 922, the 932 level again, 942 and now 952. We know that 962 (961/963) would be that .382 Fibonacci retrace I've been showing for months now, on my weekly SPX chart, and it's also right about Tony Caldaro's 961 level. I believe that Andre Gratian (independently of course) also has a number about there, as well. Does the SPX get there? Well I wouldn't be the one to guarantee either way!

What we do also know, is that today VIX futures expire, and the VIX has been edging or wedging into my 24.78 number. Many who were on the long side of VIX futures expiring today might be disappointed. Others have written on the topic of comparing VIX to the longer-term VIX futures, so I won't plow that ground (I provided some links to those over the weekend - Bill Luby at VIX and More, Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader blog, and even Rocky White at Schaeffer's Research.) What I do know, is that anyone wanting to take a KI$$ approach with the VXX exchange-traded note (or for that matter anyone else with a VIX strategy) will want to want for a trigger day when VIX closes above the prior day high - and then we also want to see VIX move back above 24.78 of course.

I've been remembering the yen and its path after testing an even longer-term .786 retrace - which it also resonated at least twice late last year into early this year, before declining. And now, as I've posted, I'm concerned that my upward projections for the yen are jeopardized if its recent spike to a .618 retrace proves to have been a corrective move that points the yen down to much lower levels. Obviously working with the yen implies other things happening with the dollar and other currencies, so it's a very interesting area. The dollar can still drop a bit more and have that be simply a test of the .618 retrace on the monthly chart, so we'll see who "wins" - policymakers who seem just as happy to take actions that should drive the dollar down, or Fibonacci. Just kidding! Fibonacci doesn't guarantee that the dollar makes a low and moves up again ... it just gives us levels to watch for potential turning points.

We continue to watch gold testing these levels (specifically, if it decides to move above 960 and make another effort on 990 and above), and of course oil and whether the $64/65 area becomes resistance or support. UNG is so far respecting the $12.20 level and if it's a valid low, then I'm sure there are many who will be happy for natural gas to make another smart move soon. After the vicious decline it suffered, it may need some more consolidation first, so give it a little bit of room if it needs that - UNG just needs to stay above $12.20.

Best to you and yours today, be careful as always out there, and happy market navigating!