Juxtaposition of events places equities markets under a cloud again

Today we've seen the VIX once again testing the 24.78 level as VIX futures expire, and the VIX doesn't look convincing that it wants to remain under 24.78. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite index ($COMPQ) moved just above the 1912 Fibonacci level I've spoken of here before, and quickly moved under it again today in a possible intraday bull trap door (i.e., a bearish pattern (it "traps the bulls"). Now it's even possible that the Nasdaq Composite is working on a bearish engulfing bar on the daily candlesticks. These alone are bearish indications for the equities markets, as the Nasdaq Composite may drag down the other indices, but there are also some other factors that add to the mix. These include the dollar having poked a slight new low, but rising intraday; the euro doing the opposite; and even the yen moving up from a possible swing low. Gold is looking weak, and even Goldman Sachs and other financials are looking shaky as Blackrock is down after a disappointing earnings report and a discussion about the weak real estate market. Not surprisingly, the real estate index is also off. The retail sector holder (RTH) is looking like a possible bearish engulfing, and have you noticed the banking index ($BKX) down today too?

Some of these items are definite bearish indicators, and others are just items I've posted about here recently with the indication that turning points from here can be concerning. Does this mean that the bear market rally is definitely over, without the S&P 500 having tagged the $961 area we and others have mentioned? Of course it's a bit early to say, but the clouds have formed with the juxtaposition of these events. For that matter, it remains possible for the VIX to close relatively low, and for the S&P 500 index still to tag about $961 before a possible turn with the VIX doing the same from 24.78.

Obviously the SPX would have to move back above the intraday swing high of 954 to retain the potential of tagging the 961 area, so that's a level to consider for the time being.

My SWHC is also down which is disappointing of course, and will have to see if it can separate from the broader markets the way that the biotech sector (ya-a-ay!) seems to be doing so far.

TLT, the US Treasuries bond ETF, is moving up above yesterday's candlebody, so if taking a KI$$ approach long with this ETF, then a stop just under yesterday's low seems reasonable. If the juxtaposition of events does lead to further weakness in equities then maybe at least some will "get their wish" with higher bond prices and lower bond rates.

As I've cautioned in a tweet today, don't get "wedded" to any particular Elliott Wave count or head-and-shoulders pattern now (whether "bullish" or "bearish") - these cautionary flags are based on long-term Fibonacci levels at least for equities, the dollar, and the VIX. As such, these do have good potential to produce turning points. The near-term ambiguity of the Elliott Wave count (which by the way, is definitely a clue that we ARE in a correct pattern of some sort, and not a new bullish impulse!) can lend itself to different interpretations, which is exactly why these Fibonacci levels are like guiding stars. The fact that they are coming together today also lends this message more significance.

The yen might have made an important low. If so, then it needs to remain above yesterday's low, and I'm going to treat it as such unless and until it says something different. Meaning, if it goes under yesterday's low, I'm going to view it as being in jeopardy of losing support and going to much lower levels. It really can only re-establish that the yen is bullish by moving above the recent swing highs around 107-108 ($XJY chart).

As for the euro, I would believe it's rather clear that if the dollar strengthens from here, that's bearish for the euro. It seems strange if the dollar AND the yen strengthen from here. But, if for some reason that happens, then perhaps that's even more bearish for the euro.

Where does gold fall out with these possibilities? I'm stepping as carefully as I can with gold ... if it can strengthen above $958/960, that places $990 back in sight. Conversely, if gold drops, I'm thinking that will make itself obvious.